How Would Mark Warner Do With the PV/EV If He Is Dem Nominee?

[Never]

I kind of thought this would be a neat thread to shake things up on the 2016 board:

At this point, it seems like there has been plenty of debate about Hillary Clinton's chances in the general election should she become her party's nominee, but what about, say, Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia if he ends up as the Democratic nominee? I'm curious to see what people here think. How do you think he would do in the popular vote and electoral vote? Would he win both, lose both, or win just one or the other? Even though it's over two years out, do you have a particular percentage and/or electoral vote map in mind for Warner? If so, feel free to vote in the poll!

Personally, I think that Warner would narrowly win the electoral vote, but that significantly depends on the quality of the Republican nominee and dynamics of the election. I'm predicting that he would end up with 49% of the popular vote and somewhere around 270 electoral votes. Here's my map to start things off:

Mark Warner - 270 Electoral Votes/49% Popular Vote
Republican - 268 Electoral Votes/48% Popular Vote

[badgate]

50-52%, 300-349 EV. He would have a strong path to the 2012 map.

Though I can see him getting less than Obama did; probably the 303 map that OFA thought they were getting until they saw strong numbers coming out of FL and pushed GOTV resources there.

[Never]

50-52%, 300-349 EV. He would have a strong path to the 2012 map.

Though I can see him getting less than Obama did; probably the 303 map that OFA thought they were getting until they saw strong numbers coming out of FL and pushed GOTV resources there.

I suppose the 303 map is definitely in the cards for a Democrat like Warner, who seems to be fairly strong relative to other non-Hillary options.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

He'd be great if it turned out he was dynamic and exciting. But with his current personality it's be hard to get Democrats to the polls.

[Mister Mets]

There isn't one answer. The Republican candidate matters, as does the national environment and the quality of the campaign. It isn't as if Warner would do as well against Susanna Martinez with 9% unemployment as he would against Mike Pence with 3% unemployment.

Warner's main strength is his home state advantage. Virginia's been very close to the national popular vote in the last two elections. Warner might be able to keep the state in an election where Republicans narrowishly win the popular vote, making the other party's electoral map slightly tougher.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Paul/Haley - 311EV - 52%
Warner/Polis (D/VC Bros Party) - 227EV - 46%

Warner/Polis win the bankster corridor (Charlotte and Northeast) on their Progressive(TM) virtues of gay marriage, privatizing Social Security, and mandatory enrollment in a Goldman Sachs "retirement" account. They win the Colorado and the West Coast as well, because the primary issues facing this country are, after all, SSM and legalizing pot - not 20% (real) un(der)employment, continued foreclosure fraud, and mandatory rents to the health insurance cartel.

[hcallega]

Depends on what kind of strategy and theme Warner employs. In the 2012 climate, and running on a moderate, job-creator platform, I see this as the best case scenario.

[Free Bird]

He would sweep up Virginia no problem is all I know.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Remember when this forum was full of dumbs who kept saying how Warner and Bayh were the only 2 Democrats who had a hope of winning a Presidential election? I hear there was this one term black Senator from Chicago named Osama or something that put an end to that argument.

[badgate]

Remember when this forum was full of dumbs who kept saying how Warner and Bayh were the only 2 Democrats who had a hope of winning a Presidential election? I hear there was this one term black Senator from Chicago named Osama or something that put an end to that argument.

Her name is Carol Moseley Braun.

[DS0816]

He would sweep up Virginia no problem is all I know.

If that's happening, the Democrat is carrying fellow bellwethers Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. Perhaps declining bellwethers, Nevada and New Mexico would also carry. Plus, there would be a Democratic pickup of neighboring and North Carolina, the next state which will become a bellwether state in presidential elections.

Never's opening thread, suggesting that Mark Warner would win his home state of Virginia but, for instance, fail to hold in the Democratic column the state of Iowa is nonsense. Since 1988, that state has established a Democratic tilt. If the party is winning the presidency (and including Virginia tells us that Never is saying that, even if he/she wants to conjure up yet another otherwise pretend scenario)…Iowa carries.

[Mister Mets]

He would sweep up Virginia no problem is all I know.

If that's happening, the Democrat is carrying fellow bellwethers Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. Perhaps declining bellwethers, Nevada and New Mexico would also carry. Plus, there would be a Democratic pickup of neighboring and North Carolina, the next state which will become a bellwether state in presidential elections.

Never's opening thread, suggesting that Mark Warner would win his home state of Virginia but, for instance, fail to hold in the Democratic column the state of Iowa is nonsense. Since 1988, that state has established a Democratic tilt. If the party is winning the presidency (and including Virginia tells us that Never is saying that, even if he/she wants to conjure up yet another otherwise pretend scenario)…Iowa carries.

Maybe not.

In the last three elections, Iowa has been about two points more Democratic-leaning than the rest of the nation. Virginia's been close to the popular vote.

If Warner's homestate advantage gets him just three points in Virginia, where he will have won three statewide elections, including one this year, he'd do a bit better there than in Iowa. He would keep the state even if Republicans win the popular vote by 2.5%. The same might not be said about Iowa.

[Never]

He would sweep up Virginia no problem is all I know.

If that's happening, the Democrat is carrying fellow bellwethers Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. Perhaps declining bellwethers, Nevada and New Mexico would also carry. Plus, there would be a Democratic pickup of neighboring and North Carolina, the next state which will become a bellwether state in presidential elections.

Never's opening thread, suggesting that Mark Warner would win his home state of Virginia but, for instance, fail to hold in the Democratic column the state of Iowa is nonsense. Since 1988, that state has established a Democratic tilt. If the party is winning the presidency (and including Virginia tells us that Never is saying that, even if he/she wants to conjure up yet another otherwise pretend scenario)…Iowa carries.

Maybe not.

In the last three elections, Iowa has been about two points more Democratic-leaning than the rest of the nation. Virginia's been close to the popular vote.

If Warner's homestate advantage gets him just three points in Virginia, where he will have won three statewide elections, including one this year, he'd do a bit better there than in Iowa. He would keep the state even if Republicans win the popular vote by 2.5%. The same might not be said about Iowa.

I kind of had the idea that you had, Mister Mets. I feel that a Democrat like Warner would definitely have a good chance at winning nationally, but it might be due to a built-in advantage in their home state compared to other competitive locales.

Also, I found it strange that DS0816 felt Florida would automatically vote Democratic if Virginia did. Florida does have a very slight Republican lean compared to the rest of the nation, and despite President Obama winning 51% of the vote in 2012, he only managed 49.9% in Florida. A small national shift to the Republicans in 2016, say 1 point or so compared to 2012, might be enough for that state to be a GOP pickup. Undoubtedly, Florida is a toss up, but I have my doubts that it will automatically go to a Democrat when they win over 270 electoral votes.

[pbrower2a]

Giving Mark Warner every state that the Democrats have won in 4 of the last 5 Presidential elections except Iowa (but exchanging it for Nevada, which seems to be ripping away from the Republican party due to demographic change, Iowa being shaky) and giving him a home-state advantage in Virginia,

Warner         280
other guy     258

That's as charitable as I can be toward Republicans in 2016 in an assessment of their chances.

[Skill and Chance]

He would win, but perhaps only by virtue of VA being pulled well left of the nation.

[Mister Mets]

He would win, but perhaps only by virtue of VA being pulled well left of the nation.

Hey, that would be quite valuable.

There are worse things than losing the popular vote and winning the electoral vote. That would include getting shut out in .

Rubio/ Ayotte- 266 Electoral Votes, 50%.
Warner/ Klobuchar- 272 Electoral Votes, 48%

That said, Warner would do fairly well in the Popular vote. If he's down by two points, I'd expect an O'Malley to be down by at least six.