MN with 7 CDs

[Miles]

I've been experimenting with this in DRA for a while. Gass3268 and I were talking about it and he recommended I do a post on it!

Assuming MN loses a seat, I wanted to see what a Democratic trifecta might draw. Any input from MN posters would be great!

My goals:

- Keep municipalities whole.
- Cut a Republican seat.
- Avoid weakening swingy seats held by Democrats.
- Keep the map clean!

Statewide:

I calculated the 2004 numbers, but the PVI’s are from 2008/2012



CD1
PVI: R+1
As with the current map, this is mostly the southern tier. Swingy, but pretty safe for Walz.


CD2
PVI: D+3
Most of my efforts around the Hennepin County revolved around making this as clean and Democratic as possible. The anchor of the district is swingy Dakota County. It reaches up into Hennepin County to pick up some Democratic municipalities currently in CDs 3 and 5. In terms of who would run here, I’m guessing Kline would retire rather than run in a seat that Obama won by 10 points. I don’t know much about state politics, I’m sure the MN posters here have an idea of what Democrats could run here.


CD3
PVI: R+11
This is basically the successor to Bachmann’s 6th. This is the suburban Republican sink. Emmer, I’m assuming he gets the nomination and wins the seat, would represent the majority of this seat. Paulsen would either have to run her as underdog in the primary or finally run statewide.


CD4
PVI: D+10
Not much to see. It’s based in Ramsey County plus ads a few municipalities in Anoka County (which collectively went for Obama narrowly). Safe for McCollum, or any local Democrat.


CD5
PVI: D+15
CD5 still includes all of Minneapolis proper. To make CD2 as Democratic as possible, I had to unpack this seat; as such, it takes in almost all of GOP-friendly north/west Hennepin County.  


CD6
PVI: R+5
I drew this seat to be as friendly as possible to Peterson, or at least winnable for a Democrat when he retires. Compared to the actual seat, it takes in more of the Iron Range, but pulls out of some southern counties. All of St. Cloud is here, which has some very odd municipal boundaries. Overall, it moves from Romney +10 to Romney +6.


CD7
PVI: D+1
Basically the old 8th extends south and is renumbered CD7. Washington County actually cast more votes than St. Louis. As the seat is more Democratic downballot that its PVI would indicate, it should be good for Nolan. Obama (2012), though, actually only did .1% better than Kerry. Kerry performed better around Duluth, but Obama offset that with gains closer to the Twin Cities. Also, in 2012, this seat became more Republican than the rest of the state.

[muon2]

In 2010 MN fought hard to count enough to keep from losing a seat, and they were successful. The divided government would have resulted in a court-drawn for . 2020 is very likely to see MN lose that seat, and may well still have a Dem trifecta. If so, the suburban counties will be proportionally larger than they were in 2010, and that will expand the size of the outstate CDs.

[Sol]

I think the DFL might be a little hesitant about putting St. Paul suburbs with Mpls 'burbs like your 2nd does.

[Miles]

^ Its hard to get a third district in that area that's as Democratic as my CD2 otherwise.

Good point, muon. I may look into over/underpopulating certain CDs accordingly.

[CountyTy90]

 


CD6
PVI: R+5
I drew this seat to be as friendly as possible to Peterson, or at least winnable for a Democrat when he retires. Compared to the actual seat, it takes in more of the Iron Range, but pulls out of some southern counties. All of St. Cloud is here, which has some very odd municipal boundaries. Overall, it moves from Romney +10 to Romney +6.
 

Minnesota's 7th (the one preceding this district) is one of my favorite districts in the country. Spent many a summer vacation there. They have one of the best Congressmen in the House, in my opinion; fits the district extremely well: Democrat, but conservative. He usually writes or at least is a huge part of the ag bill. It's fascinating how this district is one of the top 10 agricultural districts in the US and it also has an extremely diverse landscape; lakes and forests in the north to flat prairie in the south and hills in Stearns County. Beautiful.

If after 2020 Minnesota loses a seat, I'd rather see this district expand south rather than east into the Iron Range. To me, it would make more sense for the district which is heavily reliant on agriculture to bring in more agricultural land rather than the almost no agriculture in the Iron Range.

[Miles]

^ I brought CD6 into the Iron Range more for partisan reasons than for keeping communities of interest, but good point.

[muon2]

Another thought for the Dems in 2020 is that Peterson may have retired. He's 70 now and would be 78 for the next new map. One option is to make that district more R to shore up the Duluth district as more D, and so protect it from suburban swings such as in 2010.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the DFL might be a little hesitant about putting St. Paul suburbs with Mpls 'burbs like your 2nd does.

Actually their proposed map did just that. It had a district that was just a string of suburbs running along the south metro. Obviously drawn for Terri Bonhoff.

Golden Valley, St. Louis Park and rural Dakota county are the only areas that seem particularly out of place in that district honestly.

[ElectionsGuy]

This looks very nice. I would personally bring the rest of MN-2 into Washington County instead of Hennepin, but nontheless it looks non-partisan, especially the rural districts

[ilikeverin]

Yes, those districts look pretty in line with what a DFL gerrymander may look like (thankfully, I don't think the DFL would pull a Maryland with our districts).  Terri Bonoff would indeed likely be their choice for a more DFL-leaning suburban district and would be happy to see Minnetonka in the district that you've drawn.  A more sensible map would bring one or both of those suburban districts around to include Washington County; Minnesotans would likely see a 2-2-3 urban-suburban/exurban-rural divide, without any urban and rural districts adjoining each other, as entirely appropriate.

[jimrtex]

When Jesse Ventura was governor, the DFL and Republicans proposed hack plans, and Ventura proposed a quite rational plan based on 5:3.  What happens if Minnesota has another statesman as governor in 2021?

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, those districts look pretty in line with what a DFL gerrymander may look like (thankfully, I don't think the DFL would pull a Maryland with our districts).  Terri Bonoff would indeed likely be their choice for a more DFL-leaning suburban district and would be happy to see Minnetonka in the district that you've drawn.  A more sensible map would bring one or both of those suburban districts around to include Washington County; Minnesotans would likely see a 2-2-3 urban-suburban/exurban-rural divide, without any urban and rural districts adjoining each other, as entirely appropriate.

I think Dems will be quite bitter about being shut out of House control since 2010 and therefore very aggressive where they do have full control in 2021.  I also expect that Peterson will have retired by then.  So if Democrats are drawing the lines, I would expect something much uglier than this, with CD 7 and CD6 being made as R as possible and a 4-5 way split of Minneapolis/St. Paul as needed to make the other 5 districts all 57% Obama or better.