Utah:
UT-1: 55.3% O, 41.8% M. Toss-Up
UT-2: 68.9% M, 28.1% O. Safe R
UT-3: 68.4% M, 28.6% O. Safe R
UT-4: 71.6% M, 25.1% O. Safe R
Under this scenario, Utah has a competitive district. It might actually Lean D, perfect for a Matheson candidate. Of course this comes at the expense of the other districts being beyond safe for any republican.
I'm not wild about the northern part of your CD-4. There's no way to get to the Rich and Cache parts from the rest of the CD without taking dirt trails or by driving through WY. Contiguous but disconnected districts (like what I described) are a hallmark of gerrymanders.
For example, consider this plan. It splits no counties except Salt Lake and it splits no municipalities in Salt Lake. The maximum population deviation is less than 500. Other than the fact that the string of contiguous but disconnected counties along the west and south borders is longer than yours the idea is the same. Obama's best district here is only 46.2%.
That UT-01 is problematic; there are basically no road connections (that don't go through Nevada) and the Bonneville Salt Flats are in the way. Let me see if I can do something...
That's my point to ElectionsGuy. If you allow contiguity without connections as he did in the NE corner, then nothing stops a grander sweep like the map I posted. I drew it a couple of years ago to see what the minimum inequality plan was with whole counties and contiguity only.
Oh, ok. I'm relentlessly dumb.
Anyway, it seems like the best option for the Northern district is to take the SLC district into southern Davis County.
