NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race. (user search)
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  NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race. (search mode)
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Author Topic: NYT/CBS/YouGov crosstabs for every Senate and Governors race.  (Read 3702 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,155
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: July 28, 2014, 12:56:00 AM »

From what I remember, YouGov wasn't really that bad in both 2008 and 2012 with their state polls:

http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/2012%20Election%20results%20table_Actual_YouGovLV.pdf

But some of these polls here make not much sense, for example Maine-Gov. (which has Cutler in single-digits, or SD - which doesn't even include Pressler who has 15%+ in other polls).

Warner only up 10, the same as Shaheen ? Unlikely.

YouGov is polling 3 more waves until November, so things might change a bit until then.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,155
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2014, 01:05:04 AM »

Here's an overview of their Senate results:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,155
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2014, 02:26:43 AM »

All the YouGov polls will be entered in the database?

I'm too lazy to enter 80 polls ... Tongue

If someone else wants to enter it though, do it.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,155
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2014, 03:51:38 AM »

I think that it is better take the data from the excel crosstabs.
An example. In the NYT graphics, Risch leads Mitchell in ID 65-31, but in the crosstabs, Risch leads 63-30-1. In the graphics, Ernst leads 48-47, but in the crosstabs Ernst leads 46-45-2. And these are only two examples, we have many other cases ...

Yes, rounding problems.

I used the "sum"-tool in Excel for the exact numbers here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196305.msg4247062#msg4247062
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,155
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2014, 05:24:18 AM »

The polls were all done July 5-24.

This would mean Walsh was trailing by 16 even before his scandal became known, not really in line with other recent polls that showed the race tightening.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,155
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2014, 02:48:53 AM »

YouGov is a real pollster and these polls are non-partisan. They should be entered into the database.

They aren't weighted at all though; these are literally just the results of an online survey. Non-partisan doesn't mean credible.

The topline figures are based on weighted numbers, only the crosstabs in the Excel file are not.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,155
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2014, 09:29:28 AM »

The 2nd round of YouGov/NYT/CBS polls should be out in the next week.
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