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Author Topic: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror  (Read 954 times)
░tmthforu94░
tmthforu94
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« on: July 29, 2014, 05:14:51 pm »

New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Hendrix College/Talk Business on 2014-07-25

Summary: D: 42%, R: 44%, I: 7%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2014, 05:18:38 pm »

Cotton up 50/33 with Indies, leads in CD1/3/4.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2014, 05:22:40 pm by RogueBeaver »Logged
IceSpear
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E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2014, 05:19:24 pm »

Remember when Pryor was supposed to get Blanched?
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2014, 05:33:14 pm »

The good news for Pryor is that they undersampled blacks. Its a bit worrying to see him losing CD1, but they say Cotton's lead there is only "marginal."

Also, they weighed all four CDs equally. CD2 (Pryor's best) cast the most votes in 2010.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2014, 05:41:08 pm »

They weren't that different from PPP last time, so we'll see what PPP says next week. Enten said a racial reweighting means Cotton +0.4.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2014, 08:56:18 pm »

Absolutely horrific news for the soon-to-be-former Senator.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2014, 11:29:29 pm »

Absolutely horrific news for the soon-to-be-former Senator.

Dawg, I'm just grateful this is somewhat competitive.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2014, 11:52:40 pm »

If this race remains this close, Pryor has a chance.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2014, 09:09:48 am »

Quote
The high-stakes race for the U.S. Senate remains locked in a near dead heat 100 days before Election Day. Our last survey showed U.S. Senator Mark Pryor with a marginal lead. This survey, with a sample of nearly 1,800 Arkansans, shows a similar marginal lead for Congressman Tom Cotton (44% to 42%).

It will take more time to see if this marks any legitimate shift in Cotton’s direction or, instead, remains statistical noise in a race that has been airtight for months. In all likelihood, fall debates (still in discussion) mark the next major opportunity for either candidate to create space in the race.

In examining the cross tabs in the survey, expected patterns emerge.

A gender gap continues to express itself in the race with Pryor leading among women (45% to 40%) but Cotton is running up a much larger lead among men (49% 37%). The poll was weighted to match the turnout in the last mid-term election (2010), but the Cotton campaign hopes that it can create a November electorate that is closer to even in terms of gender composition.

- See more at: http://talkbusiness.net/2014/07/u-s-senate-poll-tom-cotton-44-mark-pryor-42/#sthash.KgexlF4Y.dpuf

This isn't 2010 anymore. This race is a true toss-up.
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