Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 15, 2019, 02:05:54 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
| | | | |-+  IL-Harstad Strategic Research (D)/Illinois Education Association: Rauner+4
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: IL-Harstad Strategic Research (D)/Illinois Education Association: Rauner+4  (Read 2113 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,925
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 31, 2014, 10:02:19 am »

46-42 Rauner/Quinn

The survey was commissioned by the Illinois Education Association, a teachers’ union that endorsed Quinn.

http://www.politico.com/morningscore/0714/morningscore14839.html
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2014, 10:11:11 am »

Quinn will win, afterall.
Logged
NHLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2014, 10:12:21 am »

Quinn will win, afterall.

Dem pollster finds Quinn down by 4, so he will win? lol
Logged

Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
RRusso1982
Full Member
***
Posts: 116
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2014, 10:13:15 am »

Are they surveying enough dead voters?
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2014, 10:16:23 am »

The last Rassy poll had Rauner up by 3 as well.
Logged
GaussLaw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,292
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2014, 10:19:17 am »

Quinn will win, afterall.

You must also think Sam Brownback will win as well, if you aren't a hypocrite.  It appears you think incumbent trailing in party internals by low single digits = win.
Logged


Uhhhh, I don't wanna decide. When we're left, I'm right, and vice-versa. Physics. Bible.

PM:
E: 1.52
S: 4.67
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,710
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2014, 10:26:48 am »

New Poll: Illinois Governor by Other Source on 2014-07-22

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged

muon2
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,939


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2014, 12:21:18 pm »

Sabato's full analysis for a number of races is on the main gubernatorial board. I thought it was worthwhile to note it here as well. Given that the range of polls from insider D here to insider R earlier this week are all on the R side in their result, his shift can be justified.

Quote
Illinois: Gov. Pat Quinn (D), barely elected to his first full term in 2010 and hampered by a poor state economy and budget problems, appears to be losing so far to a wealthy Republican, Bruce Rauner. Quinn’s narrow win in 2010 happened in part because his opponent was very conservative, too much so for Illinois even in the midst of a gigantic Republican wave that cycle. However, this time Quinn faces an “outsider” opponent in Rauner, who is promising to clean up the mess in Springfield and who can also self-fund his campaign to a large degree. While this race could well shift again this cycle, we’re now moving it from Toss-up to Leans Republican. We’ve heard a lot of pessimism from Democrats about Quinn’s odds, though they hold out hope that he can pull the rabbit out of a hat once again. He might, but he’s down right now — and facing a better candidate, Rauner, than he did last time. According to Politico’s Kyle Cheney, Quinn would be the first governor from the president’s home state (and of the president’s party) to lose reelection since 1892.
Logged



Don't troll and drive!
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2014, 03:51:18 pm »

Why would they release this? Even Ras and that crappy YouGov poll show Quinn doing better.
Logged

olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2014, 04:04:17 pm »

I am bullish on IL, because it is Obama's homestate, and despite what people think of Quinn, Cook Cnty turnout will be large enough to save him. Quinn was the only Dem last time that survived the Midwest GOP tsunami and will again this time.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,136
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.87, S: -6.96

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2014, 06:04:30 pm »

Wow, the only thing Quinn has to rely on is the Chicago democratic machine. He can't even lead in one poll in a D+6 state.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2014, 06:07:55 pm »

Schauer is also down, too. Do, I think these will come home at the end for the Dems? Yes, because the polls are understating Minority support. 

Quinn just like Schauer and Michaud has big labor support.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2014, 06:38:41 pm »

Schauer is also down, too. Do, I think these will come home at the end for the Dems? Yes, because the polls are understating Minority support

Will you unskew the polls for us please?
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,265


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2014, 06:44:10 pm »

This is where I believe where the race at this point YouGov/Rass/IDA all showing with Rauner leading slightly. The junky WAA polls giving people a false impression that Rauner is running away with this when this race is very much in play.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2014, 06:47:19 pm »

Yeah, I will unskew the fundraising totals, Quinn has 11 Million on hand, Rauner, who has to fend off a primary challenge has 4.

I stand by what I said early, big Labor will pick up Crist, Schauer, Wolf and Quinn and Michaud.
Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,419
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2014, 06:53:17 pm »

I stand by what I said early, big Labor will pick up Crist, Schauer, Wolf and Quinn and Michaud.
Yet Wolf already has a landslide, Michaud is actually leading right now (albeit quite narrowly), and Crist is effectively tied, while Quinn and Schauer are both behind. (I know Schauer is catching up, and have even shifted that race to Toss-Up, but I'd still bet on Snyder if the election was held today - we'll see how things look in November.)

Quinn only won in 2010 because his opponent was Brady. This time, he has a MUCH stronger opponent and a much lower approval rating. It's not going to be a democratic wave either, which again, was the only thing that got Blagovich a victory in '06. The fact that even a D internal has Quinn down is even more evidence that Rauner indeed has an advantage, and this race continues to perfectly fit a Leans R rating. Of course, I'm perfectly willing to shift my rating if the polling suddenly shifts back in Quinn's direction, but right now there's no polling to show such a thing, in fact the last poll that showed Quinn leading (barely) was back in November of 2013. I do fully expect this race to be within single digits due to Cook County, WAA is indeed overestimating things, but it doesn't currently look like it will be enough to fully save Quinn.
Logged

Oldiesfreak1854
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,767
United States


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2014, 07:11:11 pm »

Sounds like a push poll to me.
Logged

Quote from: Dwight D. Eisenhower
There is nothing wrong with America that the faith, love of freedom, intelligence, and energy of
her citizens cannot cure.
ModerateVAVoter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,144


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2014, 07:21:38 pm »

Yeah, I will unskew the fundraising totals, Quinn has 11 Million on hand, Rauner, who has to fend off a primary challenge has 4.

I stand by what I said early, big Labor will pick up Crist, Schauer, Wolf and Quinn and Michaud.

Rauner has basically unlimited funds at his disposal. He is already dropping $2 million into GOTV alone. So whatever financial advantage you cite, OC, is null and void.
Logged

Economic: 0.65, Social: -1.57
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2014, 07:31:17 pm »

Rauner had double digit leads over Dillard in primary and Dillard is very much kin to Quinn and he won by 2. All I am saying, there may be GOP house effect in these polls being a midterm, and IL is one.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,661
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2014, 01:56:09 pm »

Quinn will win, afterall.

So will Tom Corbett
Logged

I feel liberal and around conservatives and conservative around liberals. Seems I can’t win.
NHLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2014, 02:14:50 pm »

Quinn will win, afterall.

So will Tom Corbett

Hahaha well-played, but you do have to admit that Corbett has worse odds than Quinn (of course, I think both will lose).
Logged

Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
GaussLaw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,292
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2014, 02:18:26 pm »

Quinn will win, afterall.

So will Tom Corbett

Hahaha well-played, but you do have to admit that Corbett has worse odds than Quinn (of course, I think both will lose).

Pat Quinn = Sam Brownback

I think this is the fairest comparison.
Logged


Uhhhh, I don't wanna decide. When we're left, I'm right, and vice-versa. Physics. Bible.

PM:
E: 1.52
S: 4.67
NHLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2014, 02:23:58 pm »

Quinn will win, afterall.

So will Tom Corbett

Hahaha well-played, but you do have to admit that Corbett has worse odds than Quinn (of course, I think both will lose).

Pat Quinn = Sam Brownback

I think this is the fairest comparison.

Basically agreed, though I think Brownback has a slightly better chance of surviving than Quinn
Logged

Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.87, S: -5.48

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2014, 11:33:13 pm »

Finally some realistic polling data. Quinn's got some ground to cover, but not Rauner +14 like WAA was calling.
Logged




Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines