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  IL-Harstad Strategic Research (D)/Illinois Education Association: Rauner+4
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Author Topic: IL-Harstad Strategic Research (D)/Illinois Education Association: Rauner+4  (Read 2308 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 31, 2014, 10:02:19 am »

46-42 Rauner/Quinn

The survey was commissioned by the Illinois Education Association, a teachers’ union that endorsed Quinn.

http://www.politico.com/morningscore/0714/morningscore14839.html
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2014, 10:11:11 am »

Quinn will win, afterall.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2014, 10:12:21 am »


Dem pollster finds Quinn down by 4, so he will win? lol
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RRusso1982
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2014, 10:13:15 am »

Are they surveying enough dead voters?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2014, 10:16:23 am »

The last Rassy poll had Rauner up by 3 as well.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2014, 10:19:17 am »


You must also think Sam Brownback will win as well, if you aren't a hypocrite.  It appears you think incumbent trailing in party internals by low single digits = win.
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Flake
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2014, 10:26:48 am »

New Poll: Illinois Governor by Other Source on 2014-07-22

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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muon2
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2014, 12:21:18 pm »

Sabato's full analysis for a number of races is on the main gubernatorial board. I thought it was worthwhile to note it here as well. Given that the range of polls from insider D here to insider R earlier this week are all on the R side in their result, his shift can be justified.

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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2014, 03:51:18 pm »

Why would they release this? Even Ras and that crappy YouGov poll show Quinn doing better.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2014, 04:04:17 pm »

I am bullish on IL, because it is Obama's homestate, and despite what people think of Quinn, Cook Cnty turnout will be large enough to save him. Quinn was the only Dem last time that survived the Midwest GOP tsunami and will again this time.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2014, 06:04:30 pm »

Wow, the only thing Quinn has to rely on is the Chicago democratic machine. He can't even lead in one poll in a D+6 state.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2014, 06:07:55 pm »

Schauer is also down, too. Do, I think these will come home at the end for the Dems? Yes, because the polls are understating Minority support. 

Quinn just like Schauer and Michaud has big labor support.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2014, 06:38:41 pm »

Schauer is also down, too. Do, I think these will come home at the end for the Dems? Yes, because the polls are understating Minority support

Will you unskew the polls for us please?
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henster
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2014, 06:44:10 pm »

This is where I believe where the race at this point YouGov/Rass/IDA all showing with Rauner leading slightly. The junky WAA polls giving people a false impression that Rauner is running away with this when this race is very much in play.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2014, 06:47:19 pm »

Yeah, I will unskew the fundraising totals, Quinn has 11 Million on hand, Rauner, who has to fend off a primary challenge has 4.

I stand by what I said early, big Labor will pick up Crist, Schauer, Wolf and Quinn and Michaud.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2014, 06:53:17 pm »

I stand by what I said early, big Labor will pick up Crist, Schauer, Wolf and Quinn and Michaud.
Yet Wolf already has a landslide, Michaud is actually leading right now (albeit quite narrowly), and Crist is effectively tied, while Quinn and Schauer are both behind. (I know Schauer is catching up, and have even shifted that race to Toss-Up, but I'd still bet on Snyder if the election was held today - we'll see how things look in November.)

Quinn only won in 2010 because his opponent was Brady. This time, he has a MUCH stronger opponent and a much lower approval rating. It's not going to be a democratic wave either, which again, was the only thing that got Blagovich a victory in '06. The fact that even a D internal has Quinn down is even more evidence that Rauner indeed has an advantage, and this race continues to perfectly fit a Leans R rating. Of course, I'm perfectly willing to shift my rating if the polling suddenly shifts back in Quinn's direction, but right now there's no polling to show such a thing, in fact the last poll that showed Quinn leading (barely) was back in November of 2013. I do fully expect this race to be within single digits due to Cook County, WAA is indeed overestimating things, but it doesn't currently look like it will be enough to fully save Quinn.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2014, 07:11:11 pm »

Sounds like a push poll to me.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2014, 07:21:38 pm »

Yeah, I will unskew the fundraising totals, Quinn has 11 Million on hand, Rauner, who has to fend off a primary challenge has 4.

I stand by what I said early, big Labor will pick up Crist, Schauer, Wolf and Quinn and Michaud.

Rauner has basically unlimited funds at his disposal. He is already dropping $2 million into GOTV alone. So whatever financial advantage you cite, OC, is null and void.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2014, 07:31:17 pm »

Rauner had double digit leads over Dillard in primary and Dillard is very much kin to Quinn and he won by 2. All I am saying, there may be GOP house effect in these polls being a midterm, and IL is one.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2014, 01:56:09 pm »


So will Tom Corbett
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2014, 02:14:50 pm »


Hahaha well-played, but you do have to admit that Corbett has worse odds than Quinn (of course, I think both will lose).
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2014, 02:18:26 pm »


Hahaha well-played, but you do have to admit that Corbett has worse odds than Quinn (of course, I think both will lose).

Pat Quinn = Sam Brownback

I think this is the fairest comparison.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2014, 02:23:58 pm »


Hahaha well-played, but you do have to admit that Corbett has worse odds than Quinn (of course, I think both will lose).

Pat Quinn = Sam Brownback

I think this is the fairest comparison.

Basically agreed, though I think Brownback has a slightly better chance of surviving than Quinn
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2014, 11:33:13 pm »

Finally some realistic polling data. Quinn's got some ground to cover, but not Rauner +14 like WAA was calling.
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