OFFICIAL: It's May the 5th

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Blair announced it a few seconds ago

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4409935.stm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have fun with this: BBC Swingometer

[2952-0-0]

And may the fun begin...

[Polkergeist]

Have fun with this: BBC Swingometer

Yeah! the swingo's back !

[Polkergeist]

Al,

What chance a hung parliament ?

[Silent Hunter]

I just posted this on Vote 2005 and I'll post it here:

This is it. After close to a year of the pre-campaign, we really begin in earnest. On 5 May, this country will go to the polls to choose 646 Members of Parliament from a total of at least 3,000 candidates. The future of the country is at stake.

It will get noisy, it will get confusing and it will get unpleasant. We will see moments of great humour and great drama. We will see the newspapers being biased far more than usual as they root for their chosen parties. We will be inundated with polls, predictions and punditry. The great, the good and the not so good as well as the ordinary, you and me, will air their views in multiple media.

This forum will get intensely heated over the next few weeks until Election Day as we all root for our chosen parties. I ask the following to our activists: that we control our tempers and we avoid personal attacks on either fellow posters or candidates.

Many will and are trying to predict the national result. But remember, you have the power to influence that result, no matter how safe your constituency, because all the votes will count. The ONLY poll that ultimately counts is the one on Election Day.

I also ask that you learn about the issues and try and cast an informed vote. If you don’t vote, you can’t really complain later.

Nothing in a democracy is as exciting as hearing the people speak.

Game on.

[Democratic Hawk]

I just posted this on Vote 2005 and I'll post it here:

This is it. After close to a year of the pre-campaign, we really begin in earnest. On 5 May, this country will go to the polls to choose 646 Members of Parliament from a total of at least 3,000 candidates. The future of the country is at stake.

It will get noisy, it will get confusing and it will get unpleasant. We will see moments of great humour and great drama. We will see the newspapers being biased far more than usual as they root for their chosen parties. We will be inundated with polls, predictions and punditry. The great, the good and the not so good as well as the ordinary, you and me, will air their views in multiple media.

This forum will get intensely heated over the next few weeks until Election Day as we all root for our chosen parties. I ask the following to our activists: that we control our tempers and we avoid personal attacks on either fellow posters or candidates.

Many will and are trying to predict the national result. But remember, you have the power to influence that result, no matter how safe your constituency, because all the votes will count. The ONLY poll that ultimately counts is the one on Election Day.

I also ask that you learn about the issues and try and cast an informed vote. If you don’t vote, you can’t really complain later.

Nothing in a democracy is as exciting as hearing the people speak.

Game on.

That just about sums it up nicely SH. It sure as hell beats the hell-fire-and-brimstone partisan rhetoric that I'd inevitably would come up with!

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al,

What chance a hung parliament ?

There's an outside chance if turnout on the council estates is very poor while turnout in more affluent areas (both LibDem and Tory inclined ones) is high...or if there is regional polarisation on a level not seen before.

It's a lot more likely than the Tories winning an overall majority (which, depending on how you calculate, needs something like a 9pt swing. I've seen others saying 8pts and 10pts, but either way it'd have to be huge) but still not all that likely.

[afleitch]

The BBC swingometer also allows for swings betqween Labour and Lib Dem and the Lib Dems and Tories ....not bad

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The BBC swingometer also allows for swings betqween Labour and Lib Dem and the Lib Dems and Tories ....not bad

Last time I used it, it had Darling in the wrong seat

[J. J.]

The real question is:

HOW WELL WILL THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS DO!!!!

[Democratic Hawk]

The real question is:

HOW WELL WILL THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS DO!!!!

I've been messing about with a few hypothetical figures to shed some light on this

A uniform swing of 10.5% from Labour to the Conservatives would result in:

Con 41.89% - 325 seats; Lab 30.73% - 257 seats; and LD 18.08% - 36 seats plus others (e.g. Northern Ireland parties, SNP, Plaid Cymru) - an overall Con maj. of 4

However, with the Tory and Lab PV shares reversed, the result would be:

Lab - 407 seats; Con - 158 seats and LD - 47 seats plus others  - an overall Lab maj. of 167

Even more striking, if the votes were:

1) Lab 50% - 443 seats; Con 30% - 130 seats and LD 15% - 47 seats
2) Con 50% - 413 seats; Lab 30% - 196 seats and LD 15% - 11 seats

It would seem that the good fortunes of the Liberal Democrats are inextricably tied to those of the Labour Party. Labour dominance gives the Lib Dems a chance of becoming rivals to the Tories; however, a big Conservative resurgence would push the Liberal Democrats into a distant third

Lib Dems should bear this in mind come 5th May

However, realistically, I can't see the Lib Dems doing too well in Labour's urban strongholds (they'll poll relatively well but not enough to crack thumping Labour majorities); while a resurgent Tory party could threaten the Lib Dems in the South West

Dave

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

IIRC, there’s another swing site that someone posted a couple weeks back  that allows for more complicated analysis (including tactical voting) but I can’t remember the link and I haven’t been able to find it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The real question is:

HOW WELL WILL THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS DO!!!!

Hard to tell really. They *could* make impressive (relativly speaking) gains from both parties... and at the other end, they *could* suffer a near-wipe out even if their share of the PV goes up.

Ask that question again in a few weeks.