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  WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
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Author Topic: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%  (Read 3232 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: August 04, 2014, 06:04:46 pm »

Gravis poll of Wisconsin:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/wisconsin-polling-scott-walker-and-mary-burke-47-47/

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RR1997
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2014, 06:11:03 pm »

GRAVIS
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RR1997
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2014, 06:16:33 pm »

Before I was giving Gravis polls about a 0.1% weight in my mind. Now it's down to 0%. Congrats.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2014, 06:20:23 pm »


FTFY.
Smiley
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henster
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2014, 06:21:05 pm »

This makes me feel better about Burke Gravis had her tied with Walker in the Governor poll.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2014, 06:22:51 pm »

This makes me feel better about Burke Gravis had her tied with Walker in the Governor poll.

There's no real point in trying to "skew" Gravis numbers back to reality. Just throw them in the trash can and move on.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2014, 06:24:34 pm »

Why is Gravis just doing 1 or 2 matchups per state?

It's so pointless given the huge number of potential GOP nominees.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2014, 06:58:38 pm »

The poll may look crazy, but a Ryan-Clinton race in Wisconsin could be a tossup.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2014, 08:05:30 pm »

Haha no.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2014, 10:58:06 pm »

I don't think I would have quite gotten the point without the bar graph Tongue

In any case, when a single poll has a result that seems to good to be true it probably is. We'll have to keep an eye out for reproducibility of this result by other firms of course.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2014, 05:48:49 pm »
« Edited: August 05, 2014, 07:57:27 pm by pbrower2a »

Technically, if it it is "too good to be true" it is almost certainly neither good nor true.
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gay gay gay bathhouses
SawxDem
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2014, 05:58:42 pm »

>implying ryan will run
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2014, 11:02:56 pm »

>using the greater than sign to avoid complete sentences
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2014, 11:14:13 pm »

Gravis pls
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DS0816
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« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2014, 09:48:22 pm »


Dismissed.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2014, 01:24:34 pm »

Fun map.

If Ryan flips Wisconsin, neighboring Iowa, and the rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's an electoral tie.

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DrScholl
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2014, 05:50:44 pm »

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2014, 09:51:51 pm »

I think I've only just stopped laughing...
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2014, 11:55:49 pm »

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2014, 04:50:36 pm »

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2014, 01:01:54 am »

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.

...are you really trying to pull that one?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2014, 10:33:33 am »

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.

...are you really trying to pull that one?

Yeah, Romney did 7 points better in Michigan as well.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2014, 11:27:34 am »

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.

...are you really trying to pull that one?

Yeah, Romney did 7 points better in Michigan as well.

The trend is what should be observed, rather than merely the swing.

Michigan trend, 2008-2012: R+3.57%
Wisconsin trend, 2008-2012: R+3.56%
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DS0816
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2014, 05:35:54 pm »

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.

...are you really trying to pull that one?

Yeah, Romney did 7 points better in Michigan as well.

The trend is what should be observed, rather than merely the swing.

Michigan trend, 2008-2012: R+3.57%
Wisconsin trend, 2008-2012: R+3.56%

False.

Voting history counts as much as trend; if not, even more so. Trend is just a part of what "should be observed."
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2014, 07:45:28 pm »

Fun map.

If Ryan flips Wisconsin, neighboring Iowa, and the rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's an electoral tie.


And he'll also give you a pony.
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