WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%

[Mr. Morden]

Gravis poll of Wisconsin:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/wisconsin-polling-scott-walker-and-mary-burke-47-47/

[RR1997]

GRAVIS

[RR1997]

Now we know Gravis is a joke.

Before I was giving Gravis polls about a 0.1% weight in my mind. Now it's down to 0%. Congrats.

[moderatevoter]

>Gravis

FTFY.

[henster]

This makes me feel better about Burke Gravis had her tied with Walker in the Governor poll.

[IceSpear]

This makes me feel better about Burke Gravis had her tied with Walker in the Governor poll.

There's no real point in trying to "skew" Gravis numbers back to reality. Just throw them in the trash can and move on.

[GaussLaw]

Why is Gravis just doing 1 or 2 matchups per state?

It's so pointless given the huge number of potential GOP nominees.

[Suburbia]

The poll may look crazy, but a Ryan-Clinton race in Wisconsin could be a tossup.

[ElectionsGuy]

Haha no.

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't think I would have quite gotten the point without the bar graph

In any case, when a single poll has a result that seems to good to be true it probably is. We'll have to keep an eye out for reproducibility of this result by other firms of course.

[pbrower2a]

Technically, if it it is "too good to be true" it is almost certainly neither good nor true.

[free my dawg]

>implying ryan will run

[TJ in Oregon]

>implying ryan will run

>using the greater than sign to avoid complete sentences

[Dixie Reborn]

Gravis pls

[DS0816]

Gravis poll of Wisconsin:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/wisconsin-polling-scott-walker-and-mary-burke-47-47/

Dismissed.

[Mister Mets]

Fun map.

If Ryan flips Wisconsin, neighboring Iowa, and the rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's an electoral tie.

[DrScholl]

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think I've only just stopped laughing...

[Mr. Illini]

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.

[Mister Mets]

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.

The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.

It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.

The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.

It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.

...are you really trying to pull that one?

[IceSpear]

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.

The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.

It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.

...are you really trying to pull that one?

Yeah, Romney did 7 points better in Michigan as well.

[JRP1994]

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.

The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.

It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.

...are you really trying to pull that one?

Yeah, Romney did 7 points better in Michigan as well.

The trend is what should be observed, rather than merely the swing.

Michigan trend, 2008-2012: R+3.57%
Wisconsin trend, 2008-2012: R+3.56%

[DS0816]

Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.

The top of the ticket matters a lot more when it comes to the effect in an individual state.

It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.

Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.

It isn't surprising that when a politician's profile rises, partisans on the other side will have more reasons to vote against him.

...are you really trying to pull that one?

Yeah, Romney did 7 points better in Michigan as well.

The trend is what should be observed, rather than merely the swing.

Michigan trend, 2008-2012: R+3.57%
Wisconsin trend, 2008-2012: R+3.56%

False.

Voting history counts as much as trend; if not, even more so. Trend is just a part of what "should be observed."

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Fun map.

If Ryan flips Wisconsin, neighboring Iowa, and the rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's an electoral tie.

And he'll also give you a pony.