AR-PPP: All Pubs lead Clinton

[RogueBeaver]

By single digits, except Huck who leads her 55/39.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting.

While the other results are in line with other AR polls, showing a close race, what has Huckabee done in the past months to be so far ahead of her ?

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 46%
Clinton 41%

Christie 42%
Clinton 41%

Cruz 46%
Clinton 42%

Huckabee 55%
Clinton 39%

Paul 45%
Clinton 42%

[Tender Branson]

Interesting.

While the other results are in line with other AR polls, showing a close race, what has Huckabee done in the past months to be so far ahead of her ?

Ummm…..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_Arkansas

Yeah, I know that ...

But he didn't lead her by 16 before.

In fact, he only led by 3 points in PPP's April poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_501.pdf

So again, what did Huckabee do in the last few months ?

[JRP1994]

When Ted Cruz leads you in a state, its time to stop contesting that state.

[King]

Stop contesting? The contest hasn't even started yet.

[JRP1994]

Stop contesting? The contest hasn't even started yet.

Case in point. The talk of Hillary putting AR into play is way overblown, IMO.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Stop contesting? The contest hasn't even started yet.

Case in point. The talk of Hillary putting AR into play is way overblown, IMO.

Why act like it's some bizarre myth people have perpetrated? The last time PPP polled the state she led every candidate sans Huckabee, thus putting it into play.

[Person Man]

Stop contesting? The contest hasn't even started yet.

Case in point. The talk of Hillary putting AR into play is way overblown, IMO.

...while there are other states she really needs to be "reintroduced" that she will have a harder time winning without.

[Maxwell]

So states are starting to move back to their normal places. Good.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

So states are starting to move back to their normal places. Good.

Good because you like the results or good because you like the polarized map? I find it pretty boring myself.

[Maxwell]

So states are starting to move back to their normal places. Good.

Good because you like the results or good because you like the polarized map? I find it pretty boring myself.

Good because it looked like Hillary was going to sweep everywhere with a 10% margin. It's unfortunate that we will continue to have a map that is focused on five states, but it's good Hillary won't dominate.

[Devils30]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

[IceSpear]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

I don't think anybody would dispute that, even before this poll.

[The Mikado]

Hillary may well hit in the upper 40s in Arkansas, but she isn't going to win this state.  12 or even 8 years ago, maybe, but not now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've been waiting for a realistic AR poll... Hillary ain't winning it.

[Maxwell]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

I don't think anybody would dispute that, even before this poll.

I'd absolutely dispute Arizona.

[pbrower2a]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

I don't think anybody would dispute that, even before this poll.

I'd absolutely dispute Arizona.

Arizona? Large Hispanic population to which  the GOP has nothing to offer. I have seen mixed results in the same poll. The Anglo population will eventually need to vote about 70% R for Republicans to win statewide.

Arizona is about eight years behind Colorado and Nevada, about ten years behind New Mexico, and about twenty years behind California in having a D edge instead of an R edge.   

[Maxwell]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

I don't think anybody would dispute that, even before this poll.

I'd absolutely dispute Arizona.

Arizona? Large Hispanic population to which  the GOP has nothing to offer. I have seen mixed results in the same poll. The Anglo population will eventually need to vote about 70% R for Republicans to win statewide.

Arizona is about eight years behind Colorado and Nevada, about ten years behind New Mexico, and about twenty years behind California in having a D edge instead of an R edge.   

Yes, the same Arizona that hasn't moved in the Democrats direction in years.

[TDAS04]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

I don't think anybody would dispute that, even before this poll.

I'd absolutely dispute Arizona.

Arizona? Large Hispanic population to which  the GOP has nothing to offer. I have seen mixed results in the same poll. The Anglo population will eventually need to vote about 70% R for Republicans to win statewide.

Arizona is about eight years behind Colorado and Nevada, about ten years behind New Mexico, and about twenty years behind California in having a D edge instead of an R edge.   

Yes, the same Arizona that hasn't moved in the Democrats direction in years.

McCain's home state advantage kept Arizona from swing much in 2008, and the immigration controversy inhibited Obama from gaining ground there in 2012.  Clinton could be competitive in Arizona. 

[JRP1994]

Arizona margin relative to national margin

1960: R+11.32
1964: R+23.57
1968: R+19.06
1972: R+8.11
1976: R+18.63
1980: R+22.62
1984: R+15.66
1988: R+13.48
1992: R+7.51
1996: R+6.30
2000: R+6.80
2004: R+7.99
2008: R+15.74
2012: R+12.90

[greenforest32]

Arizona margin relative to national margin

1960: R+11.32
1964: R+23.57
1968: R+19.06
1972: R+8.11
1976: R+18.63
1980: R+22.62
1984: R+15.66
1988: R+13.48
1992: R+7.51
1996: R+6.30
2000: R+6.80
2004: R+7.99
2008: R+15.74
2012: R+12.90

Arizona population, % non-hispanic white:
1960 - 1.3m, (no data but probably within 74-77%)
1970 - 1.8m, 74%
1980 - 2.7m, 75%
1990 - 3.7m, 72%
2000 - 5.1m, 64%
2010 - 6.4m, 58%
2020? - 7.2m, 52%

I don't see how Arizona stays so Republican in the future. It's very likely going to have a relative shift like we've seen in other southwest states (CA, NV, CO, NM).

[IceSpear]

Obama would've come very close to carrying Arizona in 2008 if McCain wasn't the nominee.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona margin relative to national margin

1960: R+11.32
1964: R+23.57
1968: R+19.06
1972: R+8.11
1976: R+18.63
1980: R+22.62
1984: R+15.66
1988: R+13.48
1992: R+7.51
1996: R+6.30
2000: R+6.80
2004: R+7.99
2008: R+15.74
2012: R+12.90

Arizona population, % non-hispanic white:
1960 - 1.3m, (no data but probably within 74-77%)
1970 - 1.8m, 74%
1980 - 2.7m, 75%
1990 - 3.7m, 72%
2000 - 5.1m, 64%
2010 - 6.4m, 58%
2020? - 7.2m, 52%

I don't see how Arizona stays so Republican in the future. It's very likely going to have a relative shift like we've seen in other southwest states (CA, NV, CO, NM).

What happened in the other states is that Republican pols got increasingly strident as their margins of victory shrank. Hispanics abandon the GOP, and the GOP victories of recent years become losses. Arizona is next. Texas is at least a couple of decades away.   

The white non-Hispanic voters have never been as hostile to Hispanics as they have been to blacks at the same time and place. 

Obama would've come very close to carrying Arizona in 2008 if McCain wasn't the nominee.

On the average the Favorite Son effect for a Presidential election is about 10% for someone seen well in his own state. Just look at the difference between the Dole win of Texas in 1996 and the Bush win of Texas in 2000 -- and the difference between the Bush win of Texas in 2004 and the McCain win of Texas in 2008. Look also at how comparatively well McGovern did in South Dakota in 1972. The home-state advantage is all that kept Walter Mondale from losing fifty states in 1984.

The 7.75% gain against PVI in Arizona for McCain was unusually low, but not out of range.

...I can see Arizona shifting D. Just look at how "R" Vermont used to be and how "D" West Virginia used to be. Arizona has obvious similarities in demography to California, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. "More Mormons" will not be enough to stop the trend. 

[henster]

I doubt Clinton spends any money in AZ her attention will be focused in states like CO, IA where she's struggling atm.