Tories more fired up than Labour:
MORI says those "absolutely certain to vote for the party"
Cons 39
Labour 34
LD 21
Wake up, Al, this is a race!!
Yes, it's going to be interesting. I did some calculations (
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) on that poll and the results couldn't be more striking:
Full poll: Labour 38% (380 seats); Tories (sorry, Conservatives) 33% (180 seats) and Lib Dems 23% (57 seats) - a Labour majority of 114
"Absolutely certain to vote poll": Labour 34% (285 seats); Tories 39% (281 seats) and Lib Dems 21% (49 seats) - Labour 39 short of a majority
So we looking at anything from a hung parliament to a 120 Labour majority
My guess is Labour will win c.360 seats giving them a majority of 74 (i.e. somewhere in the region of 60 to 80)
I haven't allowed for any tactical voting - but Labour waverers have certainly been given a wake-up call
You'll find some Labour MPs in marginals (i.e majorities below 5000) the Tories "should" win, while comparatively safer Labour seats may fall
As things stand, I have a gut feeling that this election could produce an unprecented number of super-marginals (i.e. majorities below 2000)
Dave
