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Author Topic: NC: Rasmussen: Tillis leads by 5  (Read 1798 times)
Miles
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« on: August 07, 2014, 09:22:53 am »

Article.

Tillis (R)- 45%
Hagan (D)- 40%

Typical for Rassy. Their last poll was Tillis +1; since then, the consensus of the other pollsters is that Tillis has lost ground.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2014, 11:36:11 am by Miles »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2014, 10:15:24 am »

Dominating! See what happens when you don't goose the polls with a 3rd party candidate?
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JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2014, 10:17:28 am »

Dominating! See what happens when you don't goose the polls with a 3rd party candidate include one of the candidates who will be on the ballot in November?

FIFY
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2014, 10:25:08 am »

Dominating! See what happens when you don't goose the polls with a 3rd party candidate include one of the candidates who will be on the ballot in November?

FIFY

Yep, as usual, pretty blatant attention trolling.

Even Civitas had Haugh at 7%. I know PPP is a Democratic shill outfit, but its not like the 3rd party thing is unique to them.

Plus, a five-point lead is clearly more in the realm of "Excellent News!" than "Dominating!"
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2014, 10:28:03 am »

Well, Krazen is not entirely wrong:

Haugh is polling well because of discontent with the candidates in NC, but he actually has no substance and no money.

Which means he'll fade away until election day and can be lucky if he gets 2-3% instead of the 7-8% he's getting now.

And this will help Tillis.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2014, 10:29:09 am »

Link coming.

Tillis (R)- 45%
Hagan (D)- 40%

Typical for Rassy. Their last poll was Tillis +1; since then, the consensus of the other pollsters is that Tillis has lost ground.

Every pollster except PPP in the last month has had Tillis ahead. For perspective, at this point in 2010, PPP had Burr leading by only 2 points when their competitors (which, like now, consisted of Rasmussen, Civitas, and a third pollster) gave Burr leads of 7,9, and 10. In 2012, PPP had Obama up 3 when their competitors gave Romney leads of 1 and 5 points. While after the last two elections, I am generally reluctant to base predictions off of Rasmussen or Republican-affiliated pollsters, it seems evident that PPP tends to overestimate Democratic support in their home state when Election Day is a few months away. The only plausible exception would be 2008, but even then every pollster (including PPP) showed Hagan and Obama gain ground between August and November, so that example cannot even be used in PPP's defense.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2014, 10:32:57 am by SPC »Logged
Miles
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2014, 10:33:05 am »

Every pollster except PPP in the last month has had Tillis ahead.

Gravis?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2014, 10:34:32 am »

And this will help Tillis.

North Carolina Democrats had also rigged the ballot ordering in such a manner that their candidate was always listed first on the ballot.

As part of the excellent election reform law that will no longer be the case.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2014, 10:36:44 am »

And this will help Tillis.

North Carolina Democrats had also rigged the ballot ordering in such a manner that their candidate was always listed first on the ballot.

As part of the excellent election reform law that will no longer be the case.

Why shouldn't the incumbent Senator not be ranked 1st on the ballot everywhere ?
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2014, 10:36:57 am »

Every pollster except PPP in the last month has had Tillis ahead.

Gravis?

My mistake, although you will have to forgive me for trusting the combined input of YouGov, Civitas, and Rasmussen over Gravis.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2014, 10:45:38 am »

And this will help Tillis.

North Carolina Democrats had also rigged the ballot ordering in such a manner that their candidate was always listed first on the ballot.

As part of the excellent election reform law that will no longer be the case.

Why shouldn't the incumbent Senator not be ranked 1st on the ballot everywhere ?

That would be a valid neutral criteria, but it wasn't the case in North Carolina. Senator Burr was 2nd on the ballot in 2010.

The new law gives preference to the party of the winner of the previous Governor election. Other states also use such preferences.
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2014, 10:46:33 am »

And this will help Tillis.

North Carolina Democrats had also rigged the ballot ordering in such a manner that their candidate was always listed first on the ballot.

As part of the excellent election reform law that will no longer be the case.

Why shouldn't the incumbent Senator not be ranked 1st on the ballot everywhere ?

Thats just Krazen rehashing his drivel about the NC Democrats because he wants attention.

You were talking how Haugh's support in the polls will inevitably fade. The ballot order on election day wasn't even relevant or necessary to that point.

The party of the Governor will get the first spot on ballot list, now.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2014, 11:08:53 am »

I think NC is tossup, tilt D at this point.

Remember, Tillis is getting a bump from the teacher pay increase that just passed. 

Plus, Ras is Ras. 

Still, Tillis is in a better position now than 2 weeks ago.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2014, 12:42:12 pm »

PPP was pretty close here in 2012. Their final 2 polls were 49-49. Romney prevailed 50-48 over Obama.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2014, 03:19:52 pm »

Rassy has had Pryor and Hagen behind and to some degree Landrieu. Now, I tend to not believe him.
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2014, 08:32:20 pm »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-08-06

Summary: D: 40%, R: 45%, I: 6%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2014, 10:17:35 pm »

More questionable crosstabs from this poll: Tillis leads by 5 but Obama is only at -1 approval and +10 for McCrory.
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Flake
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2014, 11:59:57 pm »

More questionable crosstabs from this poll: Tillis leads by 5 but Obama is only at -1 approval and +10 for McCrory.

Isn't McCrory incredibly unpopular?
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2014, 07:14:56 am »

More questionable crosstabs from this poll: Tillis leads by 5 but Obama is only at -1 approval and +10 for McCrory.

Isn't McCrory incredibly unpopular?

He's rebounding somewhat, but there's no way he's at +10 approval.
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