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Author Topic: TX: Rasmussen: Davis (only) behind by 8  (Read 1162 times)
Miles
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« on: August 08, 2014, 11:01:29 am »
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Article.

Abbott (R)- 48%
Davis (D)- 40%
Other- 3%
Unsure- 9%
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2014, 11:12:44 am »
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The crosstabs are really weird. Davis's lead amongst women tanked but she's tightened the gap? That doesn't make sense.
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2014, 11:15:39 am »
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The crosstabs are really weird. Davis's lead amongst women tanked but she's tightened the gap? That doesn't make sense.

That's mostly because Abbott dominated among men back then:

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Davis leads among women voters 53% to 41%, but Abbott leads among men by better than two-to-one: 66% to 29%.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2014, 11:16:46 am »
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Ras governor polls seem way off.  They also had Fallin only up 5, which was refuted by other pollsters.  

I would love to see what the "bias" and "error" ratings are for the pollster after this cycle finishes.  I could actually see it end with a D bias(but a very large error, with examples in both directions), at least for governor's races.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2014, 03:41:49 pm »
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Yeah, I doubt it.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2014, 04:00:33 pm »
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Yeah, I doubt it.

An upset in NM or AZ seem more likeky, dont understate Latino population in FL and CO as well.
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2014, 04:10:32 pm »
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The crosstabs are really weird. Davis's lead amongst women tanked but she's tightened the gap? That doesn't make sense.

That's mostly because Abbott dominated among men back then:

Quote
Davis leads among women voters 53% to 41%, but Abbott leads among men by better than two-to-one: 66% to 29%.

Then what could've caused male support for Davis to increase while depressing her female support. Huh
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2014, 04:35:07 pm »
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Ras governor polls seem way off.  They also had Fallin only up 5, which was refuted by other pollsters.  

I would love to see what the "bias" and "error" ratings are for the pollster after this cycle finishes.  I could actually see it end with a D bias(but a very large error, with examples in both directions), at least for governor's races.

It was refuted by a pollster I'm pretty sure none of us have heard of before that's a republican one as well.
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marty
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2014, 05:31:25 pm »
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I was laughed off this forum when I said this race will be won either way by 5 points or less.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2014, 06:54:12 pm »
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I was laughed off this forum when I said this race will be won either way by 5 points or less.

You still are. This is a Rasmussen poll.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2014, 04:20:02 pm »
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I was laughed off this forum when I said this race will be won either way by 5 points or less.

You still are. This is a Rasmussen poll.

Yeah.  Even if this is accurate, it's 8 points, not within 5. 

Wendy Davis is nowhere near as talented as people make her out to be.  She's just another pandering politician who will go nowhere in the Lone Star state.
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2014, 04:34:59 pm »
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I think Davis is actually very well suited to keep this race fairly close. She's the kind of candidate who polarizes both sides. She's going to get Dem turnout nice and high, but she won't get the Republican crossover she needs to have any shot at winning.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2014, 05:21:18 pm »
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It'll be 56-42 at the end of the day.
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Reginald
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2014, 05:22:55 pm »
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Davis will get between 42 and 45 percent of the vote. And I imagine it's more likely my floor is too high here rather than the ceiling being too low. Among other things, she's just not good enough of an actress to win statewide.

Admittedly though, Davis has had GOP voters crossing over for her before; her district voted Romney by a decent margin in 2012. But the filibuster and the subsequent national spotlight make a similar effect really unlikely IMO.
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2014, 08:43:18 pm »
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New Poll: Texas Governor by Rasmussen on 2014-08-05

Summary: D: 40%, R: 48%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Free Bird
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2014, 10:00:58 am »
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Watch the White Knights celebrate
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I feel conservative around liberals, and liberal around conservatives. I can't win.
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