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  IL-Mellman Group (D): Quinn's internal shows him losing
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Author Topic: IL-Mellman Group (D): Quinn's internal shows him losing  (Read 545 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 11, 2014, 10:24:02 am »

The poll of 600 people, taken by Quinn’s pollster Mark Mellman of the Mellman Group from July 27 to 29, shows Quinn at 38 percent, GOP candidate Bruce Rauner at 39 percent and 23 percent of voters undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/sneed/29100133-452/sneed-quinn-poll-shows-gov-rauner-neck-and-neck.html
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2014, 11:00:59 am »

If Quinn's own campaign's internal poll shows him down 1, he's probably down by as much as 7. Not calling this race "Leans R" at this point would be hackish.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2014, 12:21:01 pm »

Eventhough, it shows him down, I'll take it.

Rauner is too conservative for the state. He wants to lower the taxes, but doesnt want a min wage hike. Like Walker, like Scott. They may be defeated.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2014, 12:31:15 pm »

Eventhough, it shows him down, I'll take it.

Rauner is too conservative for the state. He wants to lower the taxes, but doesnt want a min wage hike. Like Walker, like Scott. They may be defeated.
Behold! Pat Quinn's very own Adam Fitz!
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sg0508
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2014, 12:34:36 pm »

Internal polls are worthless because polls are theoretically supposed to eliminate bias.  Why bother with this? I do believe Quinn pulls it out in Nov (given the huge "coming home" effect of Democrats in Cooke), but internal polls are the biggest bunch of nonense.  If his internal is showing him down 1 (even by statistica analysis), then I can near guarantee you he's down somewhere around 10 pts right now, which is where other polls are showing the race at as we speak.

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olowakandi
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2014, 12:46:51 pm »

Internal polls are worthless because polls are theoretically supposed to eliminate bias.  Why bother with this? I do believe Quinn pulls it out in Nov (given the huge "coming home" effect of Democrats in Cooke), but internal polls are the biggest bunch of nonense.  If his internal is showing him down 1 (even by statistica analysis), then I can near guarantee you he's down somewhere around 10 pts right now, which is where other polls are showing the race at as we speak.



Not necessarily true, Mellman had Ginnoulias down by 1 to kirk, and he lost by a similar margin.

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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2014, 12:50:53 pm »

Internal polls are worthless because polls are theoretically supposed to eliminate bias.  Why bother with this? I do believe Quinn pulls it out in Nov (given the huge "coming home" effect of Democrats in Cooke), but internal polls are the biggest bunch of nonense.  If his internal is showing him down 1 (even by statistica analysis), then I can near guarantee you he's down somewhere around 10 pts right now, which is where other polls are showing the race at as we speak.

What other polls? The only pollster that shows this race as a blowout is WAA.
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muon2
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2014, 01:38:47 pm »

This poll is registered voters, so it will be more favorable to Quinn than the other recent polls which are likely voter screens. Results won't be as D as an RV poll, but could be less R than an LV poll depending on the type of screen. One problem in 2012 was the effect of LV screens that missed turnout from apathetic but solid Ds. Many pollsters have modified those screens for this year, but it remains to be seen if they can catch the correct shift from an RV poll.
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