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Author Topic: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%  (Read 2983 times)
JRP1994
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« on: August 12, 2014, 10:22:58 am »

http://t.co/y8Xlgxyvb5
(I hope that link works)

McConnell: 44%
Grimes: 40
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krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2014, 10:24:02 am »

Even PPP, huh.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2014, 10:26:34 am »

47/42 with leaners, disapproval easing. Republicans coming home.
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7.35, 3.65

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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2014, 10:26:42 am »

It should be noted that PPP has now started to switch to "likely voters":

Quote
PPP surveyed 991 likely voters from August 7th to August 10th. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.1 %. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who donít have landline telephones.

Also:

Quote
Q5 Horse race, with Patterson supporters asked if they would vote McConnell or Grimes:

Mitch McConnell ............................................. 47%
Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2014, 10:28:57 am »

This is not great news for Grimes. If numbers keep going in McConnell's direction, I'll move it back to Lean R.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2014, 10:33:20 am »

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Among undecided voters McConnell has a 10% approval rating to 66% who disapprove of him- gives Grimes opportunity

Quote
38% of the voters who disapprove of McConnell also disapprove of Obama
« Last Edit: August 12, 2014, 10:35:01 am by Cris »Logged

Mr. Illini
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2014, 10:43:20 am »

Sad
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2014, 12:07:19 pm »

But, muh PPP
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2014, 12:32:49 pm »

Looks about reasonable. Have the nukes been flying or are people starting to come home to the GOP?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2014, 12:36:26 pm »

Looks about reasonable. Have the nukes been flying or are people starting to come home to the GOP?

Haven't heard much at all about this race in the past week or so.

What's really interesting is that Democrat Conway leads the entire GOP field for governor. But this isn't a slam dunk, because you can count on the right-wing media machine to kick into high gear.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2014, 12:39:20 pm »

Looks about reasonable. Have the nukes been flying or are people starting to come home to the GOP?

Haven't heard much at all about this race in the past week or so.

What's really interesting is that Democrat Conway leads the entire GOP field for governor. But this isn't a slam dunk, because you can count on the right-wing media machine to kick into high gear.

Conway is also much better known than the GOP candidates, and even with that name rec bump, he only leads Comers by 3, not a real convincing margin.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2014, 12:41:51 pm »

Conway is also much better known than the GOP candidates, and even with that name rec bump, he only leads Comers by 3, not a real convincing margin.

People don't know yet that Comer is a Tea Party member.
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« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2014, 01:46:28 pm »

Yeah, seems like Grimes' chances are plummeting.
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2014, 03:40:38 pm »

It should be noted that PPP has now started to switch to "likely voters":

Quote
PPP surveyed 991 likely voters from August 7th to August 10th. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.1 %. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who donít have landline telephones.

Also:

Quote
Q5 Horse race, with Patterson supporters asked if they would vote McConnell or Grimes:

Mitch McConnell ............................................. 47%
Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

I just saw them say on Twitter a few weeks ago that they don't switch to likely voters until after Labor Day. Strange.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2014, 04:07:46 pm »

It is finished.
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
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« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2014, 04:45:17 pm »

Conway is also much better known than the GOP candidates, and even with that name rec bump, he only leads Comers by 3, not a real convincing margin.

People don't know yet that Comer is a Tea Party member.

Correct. Once they find out Comer should be comfortably ahead.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2014, 05:13:05 pm »

It is finished.

Grimes isnt done yet, she will respond since she is down.

I expect KY to go down to very end.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2014, 05:15:02 pm »

For as much as McConnell needs to go, I gotta admit that if Grimes doesn't start talking about the minimum wage and the right to unionize, she won't pull it off.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2014, 05:27:24 pm »

A lead that most polls have showed her within 4 pts, doesnt mean she is finished. Right now most older voters side with McConnell, but she is far from done.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2014, 05:34:56 pm »

But Grimes will win the cities and the New America votes, HOW IS THAT FAIR? [/Bandit the Crazy]
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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2014, 05:48:02 pm »

If we couldn't take out McConnell in a strong Dem wave year in 2008, then it is going to be very tough to win against him this year.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2014, 05:49:39 pm »

If we couldn't take out McConnell in a strong Dem wave year in 2008, then it is going to be very tough to win against him this year.

McConnell was running against Bruce Lunsford of all people in 2008.

Bruce freaking Lunsford.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2014, 05:50:02 pm »

If we couldn't take out McConnell in a strong Dem wave year in 2008, then it is going to be very tough to win against him this year.

2008 wasn't exactly a "Dem wave year" in Kentucky, considering Obama was on the ballot and he did very poorly there. Besides, Grimes is a much better candidate than Lunsford, and McConnell is more unpopular than he was in 2008.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2014, 06:27:29 pm »

But! But! Bandit! I thought Mitch was going I plummet after he "bombed" at Fancy Feast.
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
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« Reply #24 on: August 12, 2014, 06:31:06 pm »

But! But! Bandit! I thought Mitch was going I plummet after he "bombed" at Fancy Feast.

I don't get this notion that McConnell "bombed" at Fancy Feast.  Voters in KY don't like Obama, and McConnell was able to tap into that sentiment quite well. 

Anyways, RV -> LV changes things up.  We all knew this would happen, which is why Silver wrote in 538 that one must take current Congressional Ballot polls with a grain of salt.
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