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  VA-Hampton University/Center for Public Policy: Sen. Warner (D) ahead by a mile
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Author Topic: VA-Hampton University/Center for Public Policy: Sen. Warner (D) ahead by a mile  (Read 1631 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 06, 2014, 11:00:40 am »

3-way with Sarvis:

53% Warner (D)
28% Gillespie (R)
  5% Sarvis (L)

Just the 2-way:

55% Warner (D)
32% Gillespie (R)

The poll was conducted July 27-30, and included 804 registered voters who said they were “likely” to vote on Nov. 4 in the Virginia General Election.

http://www.hamptonu.edu/cpp/polls
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2014, 11:02:23 am »

Gillespiementum !
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2014, 11:14:42 am »

I think Gillespie has a real shot at making this a race.
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Never
Never Convinced
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2014, 11:23:17 am »

Notice that Sarvis takes just 2 points from Warner and 5 points from Gillespie compared to the 2-way race. This election probably won't be close enough for Sarvis to make a difference, but if it is, he could very well spoil Gillespie's chances.
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Flake
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2014, 11:30:33 am »

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Other Source on 2014-07-30

Summary: D: 53%, R: 28%, I: 5%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2014, 12:02:15 pm »

I thought Gillespie was supposed to be the candidate to make this a serious race? It looks like Warner is just running laps around him.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2014, 12:20:19 pm »

I thought Gillespie was supposed to be the candidate to make this a serious race? It looks like Warner is just running laps around him.
This is Gillespie's first run for elected office (as far as I know). His name recognition is, and continues to be, very low. I genuinely don't think many people know who he is or know he's running against Warner. I live in one of the most Republican areas of the state. I'm pretty sure my county went for Gilmore in 2008, and there has not been any activity around this race. Virginia has an election every year, so I'm used seeing incessant political ads, but this year has been pin-drop quiet (other than the David Brat victory).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2014, 12:30:21 pm »

Politico hardest hit. Safe D as always.
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Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2014, 02:28:55 pm »

I think Gillespie has a real shot at making this a race.
Isaac I disagree.
Indeed, Gillespie would have been a decent candidate in an open seat. Because he's moderate.
But, that's not an open seat. That's Mark Warner
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2014, 02:39:47 pm »

I think Gillespie has a real shot at making this a race.
Isaac I disagree.
Indeed, Gillespie would have been a decent candidate in an open seat. Because he's moderate.
But, that's not an open seat. That's Mark Warner

Gillespie is not a moderate though. He's been a hatchet man for the GOP for a long time.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2014, 04:41:21 pm »

Once Gillespie runs ads about Warnercare, this race will be Safe R.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2014, 09:18:43 pm »

Favorable/Unfavorable Rating:

Obama: 49/47
Warner: 62/24
Gillespie: 19/14 (49% have heard of Gillespie, but don't know enough to give an opinion of him, and another 19% have never even heard of Gillespie.)

Obama Approval/Disapproval Rating: 43/52








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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2014, 05:46:23 pm »

Notice that Sarvis takes just 2 points from Warner and 5 points from Gillespie compared to the 2-way race. This election probably won't be close enough for Sarvis to make a difference, but if it is, he could very well spoil Gillespie's chances.

You're joking, right?
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SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2014, 08:41:43 pm »

Mah Sabato
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dmmidmi
dmwestmi
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2014, 08:57:42 am »

This is probably a good race for college students to practice polling methodologies.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2014, 06:19:58 pm »

I think Gillespie has a real shot at making this a race.

Seriously?

Name your odds and put your money down.
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