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Author Topic: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%  (Read 3032 times)
IceSpear
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« on: August 12, 2014, 03:40:38 pm »

It should be noted that PPP has now started to switch to "likely voters":

Quote
PPP surveyed 991 likely voters from August 7th to August 10th. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.1 %. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who donít have landline telephones.

Also:

Quote
Q5 Horse race, with Patterson supporters asked if they would vote McConnell or Grimes:

Mitch McConnell ............................................. 47%
Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

I just saw them say on Twitter a few weeks ago that they don't switch to likely voters until after Labor Day. Strange.
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IceSpear
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E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2014, 05:50:02 pm »

If we couldn't take out McConnell in a strong Dem wave year in 2008, then it is going to be very tough to win against him this year.

2008 wasn't exactly a "Dem wave year" in Kentucky, considering Obama was on the ballot and he did very poorly there. Besides, Grimes is a much better candidate than Lunsford, and McConnell is more unpopular than he was in 2008.
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IceSpear
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Posts: 30,708
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E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2014, 05:21:46 am »

Grimes will be crushed, of course. The idea that Democrats will pick up Georgia and Kentucky is cute.

How do you define "crushed"? Even if McConnell wins, there's no way in hell it will be by double digits, and I'd be very shocked if it was by more than 5.
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