Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 05, 2019, 02:36:52 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  Fivethirtyeight: Are bad pollsters copying good pollsters?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Fivethirtyeight: Are bad pollsters copying good pollsters?  (Read 3000 times)
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,308
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 12, 2014, 10:46:52 am »

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-bad-pollsters-copying-good-pollsters/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Here's the damning graph:


Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,011
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2014, 04:55:29 pm »

There are better explanations than mere cheating though. It is also possible that such pollsters choose not to release polls when they deviate significantly from the consensus of good pollsters, thus making the polls they do release in such states more accurate as a whole.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,308
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2014, 08:22:29 am »

There are better explanations than mere cheating though. It is also possible that such pollsters choose not to release polls when they deviate significantly from the consensus of good pollsters, thus making the polls they do release in such states more accurate as a whole.

That's cheating too.  It means you're covertly throwing out data points that disagree with other people's results so as to make your overall approach appear more accurate than it already is.
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,011
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2014, 12:08:17 pm »

There are better explanations than mere cheating though. It is also possible that such pollsters choose not to release polls when they deviate significantly from the consensus of good pollsters, thus making the polls they do release in such states more accurate as a whole.

That's cheating too.  It means you're covertly throwing out data points that disagree with other people's results so as to make your overall approach appear more accurate than it already is.


Sorry, I should have phrased that better. I meant that moving the goalposts is a more likely explanation than mere R2K/Strategic Vision style pulling numbers out of thin air.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC