Fivethirtyeight: Are bad pollsters copying good pollsters? (user search)
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  Fivethirtyeight: Are bad pollsters copying good pollsters? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fivethirtyeight: Are bad pollsters copying good pollsters?  (Read 3887 times)
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: August 12, 2014, 04:55:29 PM »

There are better explanations than mere cheating though. It is also possible that such pollsters choose not to release polls when they deviate significantly from the consensus of good pollsters, thus making the polls they do release in such states more accurate as a whole.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2014, 12:08:17 PM »

There are better explanations than mere cheating though. It is also possible that such pollsters choose not to release polls when they deviate significantly from the consensus of good pollsters, thus making the polls they do release in such states more accurate as a whole.

That's cheating too.  It means you're covertly throwing out data points that disagree with other people's results so as to make your overall approach appear more accurate than it already is.


Sorry, I should have phrased that better. I meant that moving the goalposts is a more likely explanation than mere R2K/Strategic Vision style pulling numbers out of thin air.
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