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Author Topic: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker  (Read 2400 times)
Miles
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« on: August 15, 2014, 10:15:53 am »

Link coming.

Walker (R)- 48%
Burke (D)- 47%
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olowakandi
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2014, 02:32:39 pm »

I will take this, its a Rassy poll, Burke is close enough.to.win.
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Vosem
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2014, 03:16:53 pm »

There've been lots of polls that show ties or Walker leads within the margin of error, but I can't recall the last time (if ever) I've seen a poll with a Burke lead.
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I will NOT be accepting any result other than a victory for America's next President, Governor Gary Earl Johnson Angry
Vega
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2014, 03:40:28 pm »

Still Lean R.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2014, 04:29:41 pm »

There've been lots of polls that show ties or Walker leads within the margin of error, but I can't recall the last time (if ever) I've seen a poll with a Burke lead.

Marquette had Burke up 1 with LVs in their poll at the end of last month.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2014, 04:37:29 pm »

There've been lots of polls that show ties or Walker leads within the margin of error, but I can't recall the last time (if ever) I've seen a poll with a Burke lead.

It isnt a recall election in which Walker ran against a flawed candidate, Barrett.

Burke can keep it close and win on election day.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2014, 04:40:01 pm by OC »Logged
Bevinevitable
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2014, 04:53:16 pm »



Lean R/Lean D!
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2014, 05:07:53 pm »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2014, 05:20:39 pm »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.
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Vega
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« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2014, 05:23:04 pm »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2014, 05:51:36 pm »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.

It's not crazy to think he'll win. It's crazy to think he has a strong advantage since all evidence points to the contrary. Barrett was a weak candidate, and the exit poll overwhelmingly showed that voters thought recalls should only be used for official misconduct, not because people disliked their policies. That padded Walker's margin as well.
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« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2014, 06:01:38 pm »

Democrats always do better on election day than they do in the polls. Even Feingold lost by less than polls were saying he would.
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« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2014, 06:03:15 pm »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's learn R because the fundamentals favor Walker. Obama is unpopular, it's a midterm, and Democratic turnout will be down. If the race were tied going into election day, he'd be my bet.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2014, 06:07:46 pm »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's learn R because the fundamentals favor Walker. Obama is unpopular, it's a midterm, and Democratic turnout will be down. If the race were tied going into election day, he'd be my bet.

But the fundamentals are already baked into the polls. In fact, Marquette's LV screen showed Burke doing better among LVs than RVs. I'd probably narrowly give the win to Walker as well if I had to predict, but his slight advantage is not really worthy of the "lean" label, at least in my opinion.
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« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2014, 09:12:29 pm »

Definitely a tossup race: either could win. This is Wisconsin and it will all come down to turnout (duh). If I had to call it now, I would say Walker hangs on. He has the money and a loyal committed voting base. Come November, things may be different.
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SWE
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« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2014, 11:18:28 pm »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.

It's not crazy to think he'll win. It's crazy to think he has a strong advantage since all evidence points to the contrary. Barrett was a weak candidate, and the exit poll overwhelmingly showed that voters thought recalls should only be used for official misconduct, not because people disliked their policies. That padded Walker's margin as well.
Lean R =/= a strong advantage. It means he's a slight favorite.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2014, 04:34:06 pm »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.

It's not crazy to think he'll win. It's crazy to think he has a strong advantage since all evidence points to the contrary. Barrett was a weak candidate, and the exit poll overwhelmingly showed that voters thought recalls should only be used for official misconduct, not because people disliked their policies. That padded Walker's margin as well.
Lean R =/= a strong advantage. It means he's a slight favorite.

Depends on one's definition of the term. I could see this being described as "lean R" if one refuses to ever use the term "toss up".
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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2014, 06:58:53 pm »

This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2014, 09:00:48 am »

This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.

A 50-49 senate isnt as bad as a 49-50 senate.
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2014, 09:31:30 am »

This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.

A 50-49 senate isnt as bad as a 49-50 senate.
What does this have to do with the Senate?
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SWE
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2014, 02:09:28 pm »

This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.

A 50-49 senate isnt as bad as a 49-50 senate.
What does this have to do with the Senate?
What do any OC posts have to do with anything?
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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2014, 02:14:29 pm »

This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.

A 50-49 senate isnt as bad as a 49-50 senate.

What about the 100th seat?
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Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
olowakandi
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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2014, 04:25:30 pm »

The 100th seat will depend largely on if La or Ga go into a runoff situation.

We can afford to lose the 100th seat should we have 50 -votes already, because of King and Biden.

« Last Edit: August 19, 2014, 04:27:10 pm by OC »Logged
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