NBP/NPN, July 23-28, 2014:
Rounds: 43%
Weiland: 30%
Pressler: 14%
Howie: 4%
http://ksoo.com/nbpnpn-poll-rounds-holds-13-point-lead-over-weiland-in-senate-race/
This appears to be an independent poll.
While Rounds has a continuous, clear lead in this senate race, he should be concerned about one thing: The last poll to show him with 50% or more support, aside from that crappy yougov poll, was all the way back in February. If Pressler's/Howie's support drops and goes disproportionately to Weiland, this race will become (a lot) closer than it should be, unless Rounds can suck some current Weiland voters out of the Weiland column.
I don't see Pressler or necessarily Howie's support dropping all that much. This race realistically has a better chance of coming closer if Democrats cut a deal with Pressler to caucus with the Democrats should he win in return for convincing Weiland to drop out and shoveling in DSCC money in his support. I think it's safe to say most if not all Weiland voters would go to Pressler in that case considering he's more a centrist while Howie is running to Rounds right.
If Weiland stays in though, we have no chance at holding this seat. Safe R with Rounds-Weiland-Pressler and likely a tossup between Rounds-Pressler.
