What is the chance of...
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exnaderite
Junior Chimp
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« on: April 06, 2005, 04:23:10 AM »

Labour adding on to their majority
Labour losing seats but still holding the majority
Labour losing their majority and forms a formal coalition govt
Labour forms a single party minority govt
Tory minority

Please explain how that could happen. Thanks. Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
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« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2005, 04:33:37 AM »

Labour adding on to their majority: Impossible; Scotland (a Labour stronghold for the most part) is losing a load of seats due to boundary changes. Even if Labour did as well in the Southeast as in 97/01 (they won't) the majority will still go down.

Labour losing seats but still holding the majority: Very likely. Most analysis has centred around the size of the majority. My guess is between 60 and 80, although I reserve the right to change later Wink

Labour losing their majority and forms a formal coalition govt: Very unlikely. Labour's relations with the LibDems are bad for historical reasons, and their relations with Nationalist parties is even worse.

Labour forms a single party minority govt: If Labour somehow lose their majority, this'll be what'll probably happen. A new election would be called in a year or so, probably with Brown as P.M.

Tory minority: Very unlikely, although more likely than a Tory majority. Bearing in mind Labour's built-in advantage, the Tories would need some strange turnout patterns or a large PV lead for that to happen. Neither looks all that likely.
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