NC: PPP: Hagan up in close race

[Miles]

Report.

Hagan (D)- 42%
Tillis (R)- 38%
Haugh (L)- 8%

Haugh's voters support Tillis 61/19 as their second choice. With that allocated, Hagan leads 43/42.

Approvals/Favorables:

Obama- 41/54
Hagan- 42/47
Tillis- 28/48
Haugh- 8/17
NCGA- 21/57

[The Other Castro]

Approvals/Favorables:

Obama- 41/54
Hagan- 42/47
Tillis- 28/48
Haugh- 8/17
NCGA- 21/57

damnnnnnnn

[Miles]

^ Thats actually a slight improvement for him. It was 24/47 last time, IIRC.

[Maxwell]

^ Thats actually a slight improvement for him. It was 24/47 last time, IIRC.

If Tillis actually wins, he may already have a very tough re-election with those kind of ratings.

It's been a while since two candidates have been this underwater. No wonder Haugh gets such high percentages.

[moderatevoter]

It's been a while since two candidates have been this underwater. No wonder Haugh gets such high percentages.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2013

[Maxwell]

It's been a while since two candidates have been this underwater. No wonder Haugh gets such high percentages.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2013

Almost forgot about that race, though Tillis is still behind both.

[backtored]

The fact that Hagan's poll numbers are being (probably artificially) held up by a third-party candidate despite Tillis' atrocious approval numbers is some pretty clear evidence of a GOP wave.  There is absolutely no other reason why Hagan shouldn't be running away with this against an unpopular Republican candidate in a generally purple state--especially when that candidate is the speaker of a super unpopular state house. 

And, yet, he may very well win by a couple of points.

[Vern]

The fact that Hagan's poll numbers are being (probably artificially) held up by a third-party candidate despite Tillis' atrocious approval numbers is some pretty clear evidence of a GOP wave.  There is absolutely no other reason why Hagan shouldn't be running away with this against an unpopular Republican candidate in a generally purple state--especially when that candidate is the speaker of a super unpopular state house. 

And, yet, he may very well win by a couple of points.

North Carolina has a big base for both sides with few swing voters. This race doesn't prove a GOP wave.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it really is narrowing.

[Vern]

So it really is narrowing.

This was excepted. This poll shows the base support for each candidate. Now the fight for the swing voters is about to start. Which I believe Hagan will win that fight in the end.

[Free Bird]

So a D leaning pollster shows you up in the MoE against a hated Republican, artificially held up by a third party candidate that will no way in hell get that percentage. Don't go celebrating, Democrats.

Advantage Tillis

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still Toss-Up/Tilt D, but only just.

[Free Bird]

Hmmm. I checked the nitty gritty. Over sampled women and Democrats. No way in hell there are more Dems in NC.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think in the end this will be like VA '13. Two unpopular opponents face off with the libertarian taking a good amount of the vote, and it comes down to a 0-2% margin.

[Vega]

Hmmm. I checked the nitty gritty. Over sampled women and Democrats. No way in hell there are more Dems in NC.

CPVI has it has R+3.

[Vern]

Hmmm. I checked the nitty gritty. Over sampled women and Democrats. No way in hell there are more Dems in NC.

Actually, there are way more registered Democratics in NC than Republicans. And women tend to have a higher turn-out rate than men.

[Free Bird]

Wouldn't the people WANT Tillis out of the House and vote for him on that principle?

[Vega]

Wouldn't the people WANT Tillis out of the House and vote for him on that principle?

Tillis isn't running for his State House seat - he retired to run for US Senate.

[Free Bird]

Wouldn't the people WANT Tillis out of the House and vote for him on that principle?

Tillis isn't running for his State House seat - he retired to run for US Senate.

So they're getting rid of him regardless.

[Miles]

Hmmm. I checked the nitty gritty. Over sampled women and Democrats. No way in hell there are more Dems in NC.

Actually, there are way more registered Democratics in NC than Republicans. And women tend to have a higher turn-out rate than men.

This.

NC's registration is 43D-30R-27I. PPP has 42D-31R-27I.

[SWE]

Wouldn't the people WANT Tillis out of the House and vote for him on that principle?

Tillis isn't running for his State House seat - he retired to run for US Senate.

So they're getting rid of him regardless.

So why would they vote for him

[GaussLaw]

Hmmm. I checked the nitty gritty. Over sampled women and Democrats. No way in hell there are more Dems in NC.

Actually, there are way more registered Democratics in NC than Republicans. And women tend to have a higher turn-out rate than men.

This.

NC's registration is 43D-30R-27I. PPP has 42D-31R-27I.

How about midterm turnout?  Is it still the same advantage?

[KingSweden]

Wouldn't the people WANT Tillis out of the House and vote for him on that principle?

Tillis isn't running for his State House seat - he retired to run for US Senate.

So they're getting rid of him regardless.

So why would they vote for him

Who would replace him as Speaker? Would they be as bad?

[IceSpear]

Miles or someone else who knows NC well, what is Hagan's target for the white vote? Romney carried the state 51-48 while Obama won only 31% of the white vote, and Hagan is currently receiving 38% in this poll. Obviously, black turnout will likely be down (though who knows how much) and they may go for Hagan by a slightly smaller margin, but at the moment she's only getting 67% which seems extremely unlikely. I couldn't find 2010 exit polls to compare to.

[Vern]

Miles or someone else who knows NC well, what is Hagan's target for the white vote? Romney carried the state 51-48 while Obama won only 31% of the white vote, and Hagan is currently receiving 38% in this poll. Obviously, black turnout will likely be down (though who knows how much) and they may go for Hagan by a slightly smaller margin, but at the moment she's only getting 67% which seems extremely unlikely. I couldn't find 2010 exit polls to compare to.

The ads she is putting out is trying to paint herself as a moderate who is for the working class.