NC: PPP: Hagan up in close race (user search)
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  NC: PPP: Hagan up in close race (search mode)
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Author Topic: NC: PPP: Hagan up in close race  (Read 2530 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« on: August 19, 2014, 05:08:38 PM »

So a D leaning pollster shows you up in the MoE against a hated Republican, artificially held up by a third party candidate that will no way in hell get that percentage. Don't go celebrating, Democrats.

Advantage Tillis
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 05:17:32 PM »

Hmmm. I checked the nitty gritty. Over sampled women and Democrats. No way in hell there are more Dems in NC.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 07:58:01 PM »

Wouldn't the people WANT Tillis out of the House and vote for him on that principle?
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 08:04:30 PM »

Wouldn't the people WANT Tillis out of the House and vote for him on that principle?

Tillis isn't running for his State House seat - he retired to run for US Senate. Wink

So they're getting rid of him regardless.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2014, 05:54:56 AM »

Miles or someone else who knows NC well, what is Hagan's target for the white vote? Romney carried the state 51-48 while Obama won only 31% of the white vote, and Hagan is currently receiving 38% in this poll. Obviously, black turnout will likely be down (though who knows how much) and they may go for Hagan by a slightly smaller margin, but at the moment she's only getting 67% which seems extremely unlikely. I couldn't find 2010 exit polls to compare to.

The ads she is putting out is trying to paint herself as a moderate who is for the working class.

Tillis ads? What is the general feeling from people you have spoken to about the race?
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