NC: PPP: Hagan up in close race

[Miles]

Report.

Hagan (D)- 42%
Tillis (R)- 38%
Haugh (L)- 8%

Haugh's voters support Tillis 61/19 as their second choice. With that allocated, Hagan leads 43/42.

Approvals/Favorables:

Obama- 41/54
Hagan- 42/47
Tillis- 28/48
Haugh- 8/17
NCGA- 21/57

[Miles]

^ Thats actually a slight improvement for him. It was 24/47 last time, IIRC.

[Miles]

Hmmm. I checked the nitty gritty. Over sampled women and Democrats. No way in hell there are more Dems in NC.

Actually, there are way more registered Democratics in NC than Republicans. And women tend to have a higher turn-out rate than men.

This.

NC's registration is 43D-30R-27I. PPP has 42D-31R-27I.

[Miles]

^ 38% is actually pretty decent for the white vote. Dole carried whites 57/39 in 2008.

If Hagan held that same level of support and the black share of the vote fell by, say 5%, she would have still cleared 50% of the two-party vote.

For comparison, my target for Landrieu is between 30-33%. The whites in LA are more hostile, but blacks should make up between 27-30% of the electorate, compared to less than a quarter for NC.