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  KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback
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Author Topic: KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback  (Read 4486 times)
Dr. RI
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« on: August 19, 2014, 12:03:01 pm »

New Poll: Kansas Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2014-08-17

Summary: D: 39%, R: 37%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 04:24:19 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 04:28:25 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 04:30:50 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2014, 04:35:52 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2014, 04:38:40 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.
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Vega
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2014, 05:26:44 pm »

Lean D.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2014, 05:54:41 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.

"You know, Russia is the largest country by land mass on the planet." - Phil
"JUST LYK SANTORUM WAS GONNA WIN, RITE PHIL?!1!1!" - unoriginal posters
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SWE
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2014, 06:31:30 pm »

Says the guy who thought Santorum was going to win
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KCDem
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2014, 06:40:21 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Ok, bro. Whatever makes you sleep at night...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2014, 07:04:11 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Ok, bro. Whatever makes you sleep at night...

Tell me about it. Whoever holds the Governor's mansion in a state no where near mine was really keeping me up at night until I convinced myself that Brownback would prevail.
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KCDem
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2014, 07:08:08 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Ok, bro. Whatever makes you sleep at night...

Tell me about it. Whoever holds the Governor's mansion in a state no where near mine was really keeping me up at night until I convinced myself that Brownback would prevail.

Glad to hear it.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2014, 07:11:00 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Ok, bro. Whatever makes you sleep at night...

Tell me about it. Whoever holds the Governor's mansion in a state no where near mine was really keeping me up at night until I convinced myself that Brownback would prevail.

Are you implying Corbett's likely loss DOES keep you up at night then? Wink
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2014, 08:43:19 pm »

Brownback is at 34-55 approval, Obama is at 33-59. Considering they're almost equally as hated, I doubt Brownback's "muh Obama" strategy is going to work. At least McConnell actually has some type of connection to Obama since he'd be the potential majority leader, but Brownback trying to use it is just sad considering he's been governor for 4 years and all he has to run on is hatred of the incumbent president.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2014, 08:48:29 pm »

Brownback is hated certainly but he can still pull it out if Umbehr pulls enough of the anti-Brownback vote. Brownback should be trying to funnel enough of his opponents' votes to Umbehr if he wants to stand a chance. Perhaps invite him to debates or throw some money into a fake Libertarian PAC, etc. Umbehr's voters likely aren't particularly selecting Umbehr and aren't likely actual libertarians. They're just looking for a vehicle for their protest vote. Brownback can survive as long as enough of them choose a vehicle that isn't Paul Davis.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2014, 08:48:37 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.

"You know, Russia is the largest country by land mass on the planet." - Phil
"JUST LYK SANTORUM WAS GONNA WIN, RITE PHIL?!1!1!" - unoriginal posters

I mean, if you simply assert that he "will be in the lead" without backing it up and tell people to "get a grip," implying that one must be delusional to think that a candidate consistently up in the polls could win, you can expect that sort of response. I agree that it tends to be overused (based on what I've seen so far) and that a few wrong predictions shouldn't completely undermine what one has to say, but you could definitely be a bit more pragmatic about how you say it given the circumstances.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2014, 08:57:35 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.

"You know, Russia is the largest country by land mass on the planet." - Phil
"JUST LYK SANTORUM WAS GONNA WIN, RITE PHIL?!1!1!" - unoriginal posters

I mean, if you simply assert that he "will be in the lead" without backing it up and tell people to "get a grip," implying that one must be delusional to think that a candidate consistently up in the polls could win, you can expect that sort of response. I agree that it tends to be overused (based on what I've seen so far) and that a few wrong predictions shouldn't completely undermine what one has to say, but you could definitely be a bit more pragmatic about how you say it given the circumstances.

See, the problem with this response is that it ignores the fact that I have backed it up with comments other than, "Get a grip" but yes, that comment still applies.

And Obama and Brownback aren't "equally hated," IceSpear. Get real. Almost the same approval, sure. But if you ask most Kansans who they dislike more strongly, you're obviously going to have most people respond with, "Obama." Hands down.
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CEO of Bernie Sanders
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2014, 09:01:25 pm »

I'm curious about the real numbers for that. Might be a question worth asking in their next poll.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2014, 09:12:18 pm »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.

"You know, Russia is the largest country by land mass on the planet." - Phil
"JUST LYK SANTORUM WAS GONNA WIN, RITE PHIL?!1!1!" - unoriginal posters

I mean, if you simply assert that he "will be in the lead" without backing it up and tell people to "get a grip," implying that one must be delusional to think that a candidate consistently up in the polls could win, you can expect that sort of response. I agree that it tends to be overused (based on what I've seen so far) and that a few wrong predictions shouldn't completely undermine what one has to say, but you could definitely be a bit more pragmatic about how you say it given the circumstances.

See, the problem with this response is that it ignores the fact that I have backed it up with comments other than, "Get a grip" but yes, that comment still applies.

And Obama and Brownback aren't "equally hated," IceSpear. Get real. Almost the same approval, sure. But if you ask most Kansans who they dislike more strongly, you're obviously going to have most people respond with, "Obama." Hands down.

That's fair, you have provided other reasoning, and I agree that most Kansans would say they dislike Brownback more than Obama. I guess I just think you need to accept that a Davis victory is a very legitimate possibility, or at least that thinking that doesn't make you delusional. And it's natural that you'll get the Santorum response if you so fiercely proclaim otherwise.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2014, 09:17:35 pm »

I apologize for being so adamantly right.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2014, 09:18:53 pm »

I'm curious about the real numbers for that. Might be a question worth asking in their next poll.

Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2014, 09:25:59 pm »

I'm curious about the real numbers for that. Might be a question worth asking in their next poll.

Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is.

A "small lead" for Obama. In a safe GOP state, you really think Brownback is that viciously hated that Obama would only have a "small lead" in the "Disliked More" category. Oh man.

P.S. - Bush wasn't on the ballot in 2006. Obama wasn't on the ballot in 2010.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2014, 09:37:52 pm »

I'm curious about the real numbers for that. Might be a question worth asking in their next poll.

Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is.

A "small lead" for Obama. In a safe GOP state, you really think Brownback is that viciously hated that Obama would only have a "small lead" in the "Disliked More" category. Oh man.

P.S. - Bush wasn't on the ballot in 2006. Obama wasn't on the ballot in 2010.

Uh, yes? Maybe not small overall, but small relative to what one would expect. It wouldn't take very many "crossovers" to keep it within single digits, for instance.

And governor's races have a very different dynamic from congressional races. Most people tend to run on their plans for the state or their accomplishments as governor, whereas congressional races tend to be more about national issues. Now, obviously that template won't work for Brownback since he is a miserable failure that is currently losing despite being an incumbent Republican governor and former Senator in a ruby red state and has an approval rating almost as bad as the black incumbent Democratic president. But I doubt people are going to be as receptive to the argument in this case.

It's easy to be popular when all you have to do is sit around vote "no" on everything like Brownback did as Senator, but as he's finding out, when you actually have to force your right wing agenda down the throats of people, even a conservative state like Kansas isn't buying what he's selling. "Quick! Over there! Obama! Boo!". That's all he has left. He thinks he's still a Senator, and it's sad and pathetic.
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badgate
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2014, 10:25:35 pm »

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Bless your heart
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2014, 06:27:18 am »

By Umbehr helping Brownback, that means that most of the Umbehr voters are Davis-leaning?
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