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  KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23
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Author Topic: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23  (Read 1860 times)
Dr. RI
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« on: August 19, 2014, 12:06:18 pm »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-08-17

Summary: D: 25%, R: 32%, I: 23%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

In two-way, it's Roberts 43, Taylor 39
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 12:15:01 pm »
« Edited: August 19, 2014, 12:18:43 pm by NHLiberal »

Weird. Orman is actually leading a two-way matchup with Roberts, by 10, so a lot of his support is presumably just coming from pissed off Republicans. Not so sure about this...

One troubling piece for Roberts though is that voters think he doesn't spend enough time in Kansas 61-18 and think he considers DC his home rather than Kansas 50-30. There's also his 27-44 approval...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 12:20:14 pm »

Orman's percentage of the vote is amazing, even more amazing is the fact that only 36% of Kansas voters even know who he is. Either he's just an opposition choice and his numbers will take a dive towards election day, or he could be a serious candidate to actually win the seat.

The thing is, though, even less people know who Chad Taylor is.
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 12:21:14 pm »

What the hell is going on in Kansas?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2014, 02:14:12 pm »

http://www.ormanforsenate.com/

He seems like a common sense guy. Tongue

Take a look at introduction video on his campaign website, it's pretty effective.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2014, 02:25:03 pm »

http://www.ormanforsenate.com/

He seems like a common sense guy. Tongue

Take a look at introduction video on his campaign website, it's pretty effective.

I read through the issues page. He's an interesting question, seems to be more on the left than the right (which makes sense, he ran as a Dem in 2008), but certainly toward the middle.

This part is interesting, under the "Which party will you caucus with?"

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2014, 03:08:52 pm »

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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2014, 04:34:38 pm »

I still think it's just pissed off teabaggers dragging down Roberts' numbers. Looks like Wolf really wounded him with the residency attacks. Still, it would take a miracle for him to lose.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2014, 04:40:24 pm »

I still think it's just pissed off teabaggers dragging down Roberts' numbers. Looks like Wolf really wounded him with the residency attacks. Still, it would take a miracle for him to lose.

When 68% of your state's residents don't support you despite the heavy advantages of incumbency, clearly it wouldn't take a miracle for you to lose.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2014, 04:52:59 pm »

I still think it's just pissed off teabaggers dragging down Roberts' numbers. Looks like Wolf really wounded him with the residency attacks. Still, it would take a miracle for him to lose.

When 68% of your state's residents don't support you despite the heavy advantages of incumbency, clearly it wouldn't take a miracle for you to lose.

It does when a lot of his opposition is from the right and his two opponents are from the left.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2014, 05:51:17 pm »

I still think it's just pissed off teabaggers dragging down Roberts' numbers. Looks like Wolf really wounded him with the residency attacks. Still, it would take a miracle for him to lose.

When 68% of your state's residents don't support you despite the heavy advantages of incumbency, clearly it wouldn't take a miracle for you to lose.

It does when a lot of his opposition is from the right and his two opponents are from the left.

His opposition comes entirely from Kansans who want to be represented by a fellow Kansan, not a D.C. metro resident. When you've entirely lost touch with where you come from, and as a result happen to be almost as unpopular as Milton Wolf, who thinks the funniest thing in the world is to make fun of dead people, particularily dead people who were shot dead and had their head split in two, it says a lot about where you stand in people's sense of esteem for you.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2014, 06:27:21 pm »

Republicans in Kansas are the new most interesting group of people.
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2014, 07:53:42 am »

Chad Taylor needs to drop out.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2014, 09:50:21 am »


Yeah, this should seriously be considered, since Orman looks like he'd be more likely to caucus with the Dems than the Reps.
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Badger
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2014, 01:18:47 pm »

Weird. Orman is actually leading a two-way matchup with Roberts, by 10, so a lot of his support is presumably just coming from pissed off Republicans. Not so sure about this...

One troubling piece for Roberts though is that voters think he doesn't spend enough time in Kansas 61-18 and think he considers DC his home rather than Kansas 50-30. There's also his 27-44 approval...

If Dems were smart, they'd try their damndest cutting a deal with Orman and Taylor. Taylor drops out in exchange for Orman's private pledge to caucus with the Dems (at least if he's the 50th+ vote for a Dem majority), and Taylor gets his first choice of an appointment in a Davis administration, a fed job of choosing, or the party's backing for office of his choice.

Not likely to happen considering these numbers are probably giving Taylor dreams of being the first Democrat senator from KS in 75 years. It'll be beyond hard for him to let go after devoting his life to this race for the last year or two.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2014, 04:46:30 pm »

Orman was actually going to run for the Democratic nomination originally but didn't think he could have beaten Taylor (he would have, IMO).

Not too surprising - Orman has been all over the media here. I really think he would have won this race had Wolf won the GOP nomination. As it stands, his only chance is if Taylor completely implodes.

As to the talks of who he caucuses with, I believe he has said he will caucus with whoever wins the majority. That being said, it'll be interesting to see what happens if it's 50-49 GOP. I imagine he would caucus with the Republicans as it increases his shot at re-election, but we'll see.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2014, 05:13:19 pm »

Tmthforu,


Why Brownback and the rep senator are so unpopular?
I mean, that's Kansas, one of the reddest states of the country.
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2014, 12:25:04 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2014, 12:27:32 pm by The Roose is Loose »

Orman was actually going to run for the Democratic nomination originally but didn't think he could have beaten Taylor (he would have, IMO).

Not too surprising - Orman has been all over the media here. I really think he would have won this race had Wolf won the GOP nomination. As it stands, his only chance is if Taylor completely implodes.

As to the talks of who he caucuses with, I believe he has said he will caucus with whoever wins the majority. That being said, it'll be interesting to see what happens if it's 50-49 GOP. I imagine he would caucus with the Republicans as it increases his shot at re-election, but we'll see.

I doubt it since he used to be a Democrat and doesn't strike me as a tow-the-party-line type.  He'd get tea-bagged out of office instantly if he caucused with the Republicans and ran for re-election in their party's primary, surely he realizes that.  As for Taylor, it probably depends how much of a team player he is.  Is he a Kendrick Meek or a Buddy Roemer?
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