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  NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead
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Author Topic: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead  (Read 1253 times)
Miles
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« on: August 20, 2014, 01:08:52 pm »

Article.

Hagan (D)- 45%
Tillis (R)- 43%
Haugh (L)- 5%
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Free Bird
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2014, 01:10:27 pm »

How reliable is Suffolk?
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2014, 01:13:25 pm »

^ I don't think they've done much work in NC, but looks like most of their 2012 polls underestimated Obama in swing states.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2014, 01:15:54 pm »

Isn't Suffolk the pollster that said they weren't going to bother polling Virginia or Florida in 2012 since they were solid Romney states?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2014, 01:17:45 pm »

Isn't Suffolk the pollster that said they weren't going to bother polling Virginia or Florida in 2012 since they were solid Romney states?

Indeed.
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2014, 01:19:41 pm »

^ Wow, yeah. They said Romney was clearly gonna win FL, VA and NC so no need to poll them.

'Guess 1 for 3 is a good record Wink
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2014, 01:24:19 pm »

^ Wow, yeah. They said Romney was clearly gonna win FL, VA and NC so no need to poll them.

'Guess 1 for 3 is a good record Wink

To add insult to injury, Obama came closer to carrying NC than Romney came to carrying VA. Tongue
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backtored
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2014, 01:46:33 pm »

^ Wow, yeah. They said Romney was clearly gonna win FL, VA and NC so no need to poll them.

'Guess 1 for 3 is a good record Wink

To add insult to injury, Obama came closer to carrying NC than Romney came to carrying VA. Tongue

To be fair, though, this poll is pretty much where I would peg the race.  Misreading where the most competitive races are isn't necessarily the same thing as getting funky data.  These may be really good numbers right now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2014, 01:08:49 am »

If Haugh voters are asked who they back, Hagan only leads 47-46 though.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2014, 03:40:08 am »

Plausible numbers.
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2014, 12:37:03 pm »

Full crosstabs.

Hagan's approval is 41/48 (similar to what PPP found). There's a good chunk of voters who aren't sure of Tillis, but he's not popular, at 24/39 favorables.
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RRusso1982
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2014, 01:14:30 pm »

Suffolk also came out with a poll during the 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial election that had Corzine 9 points ahead of Christie a week before the election.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2014, 05:48:14 pm »

Full crosstabs.

Hagan's approval is 41/48 (similar to what PPP found). There's a good chunk of voters who aren't sure of Tillis, but he's not popular, at 24/39 favorables.

I've seen Tillis with much higher unfavorables in other polls.  Didn't one of them have him at 48 unfavorable?  What's with the discrepancy?
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2014, 07:16:37 pm »

^ PPP had him at 28/48. This poll has more who don't have an opinion of him. The difference isn't that much (-20 vs. -15), especially considering that his name rec will still grow.
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henster
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2014, 10:45:58 pm »

Haugh will get less than 2% of the vote he's not Sarvis he's some random pizza guy with no money. Hagan only wins this by nuking Tillis making him unacceptable to voters because she has no brand of her own.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2014, 03:06:11 am »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Suffolk University on 2014-08-16

Summary: D: 45%, R: 43%, I: 5%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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