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  NH: WMUR/Granite State Poll: Brown closing in?
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Author Topic: NH: WMUR/Granite State Poll: Brown closing in?  (Read 2332 times)
Miles
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« on: August 21, 2014, 05:07:13 pm »

Article.

Shaheen (D)- 46%
Brown (R)- 44%

This is down from a 12-point Shaheen lead last month...
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2014, 05:14:38 pm »

WMUR/UNH is prone to wild swings. While I'll admit that this is unsettling, nothing has happened since the last poll (July WMUR/UNH showing Shaheen up 12) that would explain a drop in Shaheen's numbers (and many of Brown's major gaffes/missteps HAVE happened since that last poll).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2014, 05:15:20 pm »

I'm sure they'll show Shaheen up 50 in a couple weeks. Wink
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2014, 05:51:44 pm »

Junk poll, like all pre-election day WMUR polls.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2014, 05:55:49 pm »

UNH has weird swings in both directions. The next poll will be completely different than this one.
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henster
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2014, 05:55:56 pm »

Shaheen favorability rating have plunged 9 points since last month and the race has shifted 10 points and she's not even involved in a scandal. I can't think of anything to explain such a wild shift.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2014, 06:23:41 pm »

Have the Dems sent a money dump to NH recently? If not, it will be interesting to see if they do now. That will tell the tale of how real this is. What is real, is that the Dems are in increasingly bad shape this cycle when it comes to the Senate overall. That is what happens when the news seems near unremittingly bad, week after week.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2014, 06:24:52 pm »

Outlier and UNH. Will wait for PPP.
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Vega
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2014, 06:31:44 pm »

Like Beaver, I'll have to get another poll to be sure.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2014, 07:08:07 pm »

Have the Dems sent a money dump to NH recently? If not, it will be interesting to see if they do now. That will tell the tale of how real this is. What is real, is that the Dems are in increasingly bad shape this cycle when it comes to the Senate overall. That is what happens when the news seems near unremittingly bad, week after week.

Except there's been nothing here even remotely suggesting Scott Brown having any kind of momentum here, let alone a 10 point shift. I've already lambasted WMUR enough, but Democrats don't even need a money dump here to win. Brown's ceiling is a five-point loss.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2014, 07:17:18 pm »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/nh/new_hampshire_1st_district_guinta_vs_sheaporter-4142.html

Truly a remarkable and consistent pollster. I'm sure the campaign between Shea-Porter and Guinta has been full of so many twists and turns that 15-20 point swings are commonplace.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2014, 02:59:42 am »

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by University of New Hampshire on 2014-08-17

Summary: D: 46%, R: 44%, I: 1%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2014, 03:54:06 am »

So I've been saying WMUR's a junk firm when it showed a 13-point swing towards Guinta and got sh*t for it...

Img
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2014, 10:24:22 am »

It's great news for Brown since the consensus seemed to be that this was a race that wasn't go the Republican's way.

In some polling, there has been a tail wagging the dog effect. Good numbers lead to positive media coverage and greater credibility, and reality matches flawed polling data.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2014, 10:28:19 am »

I would love to see Scott Brown back, but it just isn't happening.
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2014, 11:39:38 am »

I feel like polling has gotten better for Brown and Havenstein recently, but Shaheen and Hassan are both definitely still up at least mid-single-digits.
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SWE
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« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2014, 11:40:49 am »

Shaheen will beat Brown by a larger margin than Warren did.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2014, 01:47:15 pm »
« Edited: August 22, 2014, 01:51:35 pm by Northeast Assemblyman Sawx »

ITT: Republican hacks try to use a shoddy poll from a bad firm to fit their personal narrative.

You are divorced from reality if you think Brown is running close to Shaheen.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2014, 02:14:54 pm »

Have the Dems sent a money dump to NH recently? If not, it will be interesting to see if they do now. That will tell the tale of how real this is. What is real, is that the Dems are in increasingly bad shape this cycle when it comes to the Senate overall. That is what happens when the news seems near unremittingly bad, week after week.

Check the history of this pollster before counting your chickens.
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cinyc
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« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2014, 03:10:44 pm »

So I've been saying WMUR's a junk firm when it showed a 13-point swing towards Guinta and got sh*t for it...

WMUR isn't a polling firm.  It is the New Hampshire TV station that sponsored the poll.  The pollster is UNH, whose polls are wildly variable.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2014, 03:31:07 pm »

So I've been saying WMUR's a junk firm when it showed a 13-point swing towards Guinta and got sh*t for it...

WMUR isn't a polling firm.  It is the New Hampshire TV station that sponsored the poll.  The pollster is UNH, whose polls are wildly variable.

Same sh*t.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2014, 01:52:57 pm »

Right on cue, Politico writes their "Brown surge!" story. I guess they finally gave up on Gillespie and replaced him with Brown. Tongue
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: August 23, 2014, 02:17:44 pm »

Shaheen will beat Brown by a larger margin than Warren did.

Absolutely, I don't think anyone was expecting otherwise.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #23 on: August 25, 2014, 10:12:23 am »

This has got a lot of positive press for Brown. It wasn't just Politico and conservative websites, but the likes of  NPR, the Washington Post Even if it's a bad poll, it could end up getting him a second look.

It's worth noting that the primary isn't officially over yet. Brown's opponents included a former US Senator from New Hampshire (albeit a wacky one) and a wealthy former state senator. A competitive poll reinforces Brown's top arguments. He might have been weaker if every poll showed him down 8-12 points against Shaheen.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #24 on: August 25, 2014, 03:07:47 pm »

This has got a lot of positive press for Brown. It wasn't just Politico and conservative websites, but the likes of  NPR, the Washington Post Even if it's a bad poll, it could end up getting him a second look.

It's worth noting that the primary isn't officially over yet. Brown's opponents included a former US Senator from New Hampshire (albeit a wacky one) and a wealthy former state senator. A competitive poll reinforces Brown's top arguments. He might have been weaker if every poll showed him down 8-12 points against Shaheen.

And I agree with your second part - if Smith dropped out (since he's not raising any funds) and let the rest of the GOP unite behind Rubens, Brown would have a very real chance of getting kicked out of the primary. He's much more in-tune with New Hampshire's views than Brown, and dare I say has a better chance at beating Shaheen. While the national media's been talking about how this is a tie race because of one sketchy poll from a firm that should only be trusted on election day, on the ground here, Mitt Romney and John McCain's veterans director (who's a big presence among vets, especially in Nashua) just endorsed her. Not only that, but he was one of Dubya's campaign chairs in NH, and his reason for crossing the aisle was because "Jeanne Shaheen puts New Hampshire first". If that's not a thinly-veiled shot at Brown, I don't know what is.

Obviously the national media, and this one poll say it's a tie race, but on the ground, New Hampshire is getting the message clear: Jeanne Shaheen is in this race for New Hampshire. Scott Brown is in it for Scott Brown. And you can't disguise that, no matter how unpopular Obama is.
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