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  IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
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Author Topic: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.  (Read 3635 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: August 26, 2014, 11:46:05 am »
« edited: August 26, 2014, 11:48:38 am by Cris »

Braley (D) 41%
Ernst (R) 40%
Others 5%

Horse race:

Braley (D) 42%
Ernst (R) 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_826930.pdf
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2014, 11:46:34 am »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/iowa-senate-race-tied.html

Braley 42
Ernst 41
Others 5

Worth noting that undecideds lean Democratic.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2014, 11:47:11 am »

Uugh, not quite enough to feel comfortable.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2014, 11:47:49 am »

Horse race. 42-42
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backtored
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2014, 11:50:22 am »

"Anyone's game"

As it's been for at least the last couple of months.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2014, 11:50:26 am »

In the article, Braley has 42% and Ernst has 41% but in the crosstabs Braley has 41% and Ernst 40%.
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Never
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2014, 11:51:16 am »

This is good news, considering their last poll had Braley up 6.
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SWE
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2014, 11:51:29 am »

"Anyone's game"

As it's been for at least the last couple of months.
wow really I had no idea
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2014, 11:58:11 am »

Yes. Good news for the GOP, but...

Quote
The good news for Braley in spite of his vanished lead is that the undecideds play well for him- they report having voted for Barack Obama by 13 points in 2012, and 35% are Democrats to 26% who are Republicans. They are also disproportionately female and young voters, groups that tend to play to Democrats' advantage. But clearly Braley has work to do.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2014, 11:58:40 am »

Ops. We have two similar threads Tongue
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2014, 12:20:11 pm »

...wow, did I just crosspost this thirty seconds after you did?
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2014, 12:28:54 pm »

So, if Braley loses, it was because he was a sh**t campaigner.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2014, 12:30:34 pm »

So, if Braley loses, it was because he was a sh**t campaigner.

Yes. Ernst can't win, but Braley can lose.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2014, 01:24:32 pm »

Braley and Ernst are both pretty unpopular, but Braley is leading because Ernst is more hated.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2014, 01:42:09 pm »

Democratic pollster
Margin of error.

Truly anyone's game
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2014, 01:43:07 pm »

So, if Braley loses, it was because he was a sh**t campaigner.

Yes. Ernst can't win, but Braley can lose.

Braley and Ernst are both pretty unpopular, but Braley is leading because Ernst is more hated.

I agree with both of these points. Ernst has the potential to say even more crazy things, which I think will sway the race. It will still be very close.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2014, 02:12:40 pm »

Democratic pollster
Margin of error.

Truly anyone's game

PPP, with the exception of their internals, which I question, is fairly accurate in most states (exception for AK, HI, and WV) even with questionable methods. I'd trust this poll as a barometer for how the race looks right now, along with any Quinnipiac poll.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2014, 02:21:05 pm »

Democratic pollster
Margin of error.

Truly anyone's game

PPP, with the exception of their internals, which I question, is fairly accurate in most states (exception for AK, HI, and WV) even with questionable methods. I'd trust this poll as a barometer for how the race looks right now, along with any Quinnipiac poll.

It's still a statistical tie with the MoE
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2014, 02:24:32 pm »

Democratic pollster
Margin of error.

Truly anyone's game

PPP, with the exception of their internals, which I question, is fairly accurate in most states (exception for AK, HI, and WV) even with questionable methods. I'd trust this poll as a barometer for how the race looks right now, along with any Quinnipiac poll.

It's still a statistical tie with the MoE

I'm not disagreeing with that. I agree with your statement that it's truly anyone's game. I'm just saying that characterizing PPP as a democratic firm is unfair to their level of accuracy in most races.
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marty
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« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2014, 04:40:14 pm »

I just don't see a republican pickup here. Obama won the state handily in 12.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2014, 04:43:44 pm »

I just don't see a republican pickup here. Obama won the state handily in 12.

It's not 2012, and the Democrat is certainly no Obama in terms of campaign skill. It's whether Ernst's campaigning skill can override her craziness.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2014, 05:18:46 pm »

I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2014, 05:23:08 pm »

I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2014, 05:24:04 pm »
« Edited: August 26, 2014, 05:26:21 pm by Invisible Obama »

I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

You're the one trying to start an argument. It seems like quite a few people here overestimate certain candidates, and Ernst is one of them. That's a certain degree of like.

There is a poster here who claimed that Ernst just misspoke and that Democrats were unfairly attacking her, so it's not like there is "nobody" on here who likes or supports Ernst.
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Castro
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« Reply #24 on: August 26, 2014, 05:28:01 pm »

I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

You're the one trying to start an argument. It seems like quite a few people here overestimate certain candidates, and Ernst is one of them. That's a certain degree of like.

There is a poster here who claimed that Ernst just misspoke and that Democrats were unfairly attacking her, so it's not like there is "nobody" on here who likes or supports Ernst.


It's not that people are overestimating her, it's that people are correctly estimating how bad a campaigner Braley is.
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