I think Florida has gradually become a solid Republican state under Jeb Bush's governorship. This was reflected when Bush soundly defeated Democrat Bill McBride in last year's gubernatorial elections.
My guess is GWB will win the state by at least 5 percent next year.
I agree Mike
and since I just realised there was no eartshattering reason to post those three words
let me say something more about Florida.
People often claim that Florida is the least Republican state in the South. I beg to differ, albeit slightly.
Florida is the least CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN state in the South. Its still majority Republican!!!
There is of course a solid conservative base in Florida but it is comparatively much smaller compared to the surrounding states. Most republicans in Florida are Moderates. Together with the conservatives they form a solid and unbeatable majority- when the candidate is seen as sufficiently moderate, at least as compared to the democrat. When the reverse occurs there is erosion in the vote. That is why Jeb Bush won in 2002 and conversely why Sen. Nelson won in 2000 over an opponent seen as too extreme.
If you want more evidence that these moderates I speak of are largely Republican leaning and not just solid independents........Florida has the most republican state legislature in the ENTIRE SOUTH and for a state its size, a remarkably republican congressional delegation (18-7 GOP advantage)
All of these huge majorities are regularly elected with large margins.
How does this occur in the supposedly LEAST REPUBLICAN SOUTHERN STATE??
Well in a nutshell a large number of these elected representatives tend to be moderates who appeal to the many other republican moderates I mentioned but are still able to satisfy conservatives and thus keep the flock together.
This is what Bush has to do in 2004. However I submit it's a much easier task because there is a REPUBLICAN majority who want to believe that the GOP candidate is the best choice. This is a better proposition as compared to a state like Penn. where perhaps a lot of generally uncommitted or even democrat leaning voters must be won over.
Besides while Bush has certainly been a conservative President he has been moderate on issues important to Florida voters. He has demonstrated none of the radical extremism that the Florida Democrats did a good job of tarring him with in 2000. (better than they were able in most other moderate states)
Thus I submit that while Florida is competitive and I don't see how it wouldn't be..............Bush is well ahead in the game and even in a reasonably close race can be expected to win Florida.
