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Author Topic: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1  (Read 2591 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 28, 2014, 05:26:36 am »



http://lancasteronline.com/news/local/f-m-college-poll-corbett-failing-to-gain-ground-in/article_2e89c352-2e32-11e4-8e8c-001a4bcf6878.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2014, 05:34:46 am »

It's also not getting any better for Corbett when undecideds are pushed:

Quote
Lean_Gov. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Tom Corbett, Tom Wolf, or are you leaning toward some other candidate?

28% Wolf
13% Corbett
59% Other/Still don't know
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2014, 05:37:15 am »

While they don't give combined numbers (incl. leaners), the breakdown of leaners would give us an overall result of 56% Wolf and 27% Corbett.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2014, 07:04:13 am »

Lean D.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2014, 08:58:46 am »

So is this lean D like Sabato says or a toss up like Cook says? I guess we'll split the difference and call it tilt D. Wink

But no really, this is a safe D race now. Time to put aside "muh incumbency" and see reality for what it is. Wolf has a bigger lead than Greg Abbott, Jerry Brown, John Cornyn, Ben Sasse, Dick Durbin, Lindsey Graham...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2014, 09:03:28 am »

This race has been over for a long time, the fact that Wolf's margin continues to grow is very telling.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2014, 09:16:31 am »

What are the odds of Tom Wolf getting over 60% of the vote at this point?
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« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2014, 09:21:07 am »

Overwhelming D.

Pennsylvania can certainly turn on an incumbent in an election -- just think of Rick Sanctimonious in 2006!
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2014, 10:12:40 am »

Undecideds seem too high for me, but yeah. I don't see how Corbett comes back from this deficit  in two months' time.
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« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2014, 11:55:14 am »

Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2014, 01:49:11 pm »

Lean R
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2014, 02:30:09 pm »

Wolf under 50? Definetley Likely Republican.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2014, 02:31:16 pm »

The polls are skewed, Corbett will win in a landslide.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2014, 04:09:32 pm »

Undecideds seem too high for me

That's standard for F&M polls.
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
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« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2014, 04:59:50 pm »

Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado.

Well, no, not really.
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« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2014, 05:04:30 pm »

I can only imagine how disastrous this is for down-ballot races.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2014, 05:05:06 pm »

Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado.

You're joking. Right?
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« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2014, 05:05:42 pm »

I think Wolf wins 62-36 in the end and depressed GOP turnout allows for a couple of state Senate to flip towards the Dems. I think there's a high possibility one chamber flips at this point there will be some type of coattails from all of this.
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Flake
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« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2014, 05:08:07 pm »

Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado.

You're joking. Right?

I'm pretty sure it's sarcasm
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« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2014, 05:13:16 pm »

Why didn't they primary him?

Pennsylvania is a slowly R-trending state, and a super-important one for Republicans in 2016 and beyond.  I don't understand how the GOP let this happen, unless there is some metric out there where Corbett is in better shape than we all think.
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« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2014, 05:14:43 pm »

Pennsylvania is a slowly R-trending state

What?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: August 28, 2014, 05:30:51 pm »

Why didn't they primary him?

This state is still very old fashioned. There's a lot of respect for the establishment and the Governor is truly seen as the head of his respective party. Plus, the Governor's office here is historically strong so a Governor wields incredible influence.

There was plenty of talk about a Corbett primary challenge and an old rival of his was "considering" it. No surprise when it didn't materialize though.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #22 on: August 28, 2014, 05:45:50 pm »

Why didn't they primary him?

This state is still very old fashioned. There's a lot of respect for the establishment and the Governor is truly seen as the head of his respective party. Plus, the Governor's office here is historically strong so a Governor wields incredible influence.

There was plenty of talk about a Corbett primary challenge and an old rival of his was "considering" it. No surprise when it didn't materialize though.

Gerlach, right?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: August 28, 2014, 05:54:24 pm »

Why didn't they primary him?

This state is still very old fashioned. There's a lot of respect for the establishment and the Governor is truly seen as the head of his respective party. Plus, the Governor's office here is historically strong so a Governor wields incredible influence.

There was plenty of talk about a Corbett primary challenge and an old rival of his was "considering" it. No surprise when it didn't materialize though.

Gerlach, right?

Bruce Castor

Gerlach was talked up but he isn't a historical Corbett rival.
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #24 on: August 28, 2014, 06:10:08 pm »

Oh yeah, him.

What do you think it would've been like if it was Wolf v. Castor?
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