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  KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback
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Author Topic: KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback  (Read 4300 times)
░tmthforu94░
tmthforu94
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« Reply #50 on: August 31, 2014, 09:43:08 pm »

Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:
Quote
Al, the only PA Dem that could beat Santorum is Casey. That's it. Maybe Holden but other than that, Santorum will keep the seat. Casey has dismissed the idea of a run several times now. The Dems won't win here. However, if you'd like to take money out of VA and MO races to focus on PA, that's fine with me. All you'll be doing is wasting your money.
He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state Tongue.

LoL.

And tmth just moved to KS.
Born and raised here, been here for two years, and Kansas has similar values to Indiana.

That being said, while politically I'm probably the targeted swing voter, I also think about political implications more than the average Kansan, hence why I am leaning towards Brownback.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #51 on: August 31, 2014, 11:20:36 pm »
« Edited: August 31, 2014, 11:22:58 pm by Wulfric »

Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:
Quote
Al, the only PA Dem that could beat Santorum is Casey. That's it. Maybe Holden but other than that, Santorum will keep the seat. Casey has dismissed the idea of a run several times now. The Dems won't win here. However, if you'd like to take money out of VA and MO races to focus on PA, that's fine with me. All you'll be doing is wasting your money.
He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state Tongue.

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure his official prediction (as in, right before the election) was that Santorum would beat Casey, something that was obviously not going to happen, and it wasn't even close. And saying "Brownback will lead by October, get a grip" is not a reasonable or articulate point.

And the claim by Icespear checks out. Here's Phil's final PA prediction, from Nov. 3:

"Pennsylvania - Ah, here we are. This race really needed to get more attention this year....   Wink


You know, regardless of what I say here or anywhere in my predictions, these will always be predictions by an amatuer on an internet political forum. I am not a Stuart Rothenberg, a Charlie Cook, a Larry Sabato, etc. If I predict a Santorum win, I am only going to be laughed at by a small group of people that I will have no or very little contact with outside of the forum. They'll get their laugh and, you know what? I hope they enjoy it...if I do predict a Santorum win and if he ends up losing.

Then again, I can always jump ship and call for a Casey win and if I was to do that, I can already hear the comments. "Finally! The last delusional hack admits Santorum is done!" and "He's just trying to cover his ass after making such a fool of himself earlier." Eh...whatever. Life will go on. My predictions will never be Earth-shattering and the critical comments that will be directed my way will have to end some time.

I just want to say that I never requested that people not celebrate their victories. Casey supporters can rejoice in a glorious victory after slaying their arch rival (if it happens) and that's fine. At the same time, Santorum fans can also be very, very proud of their win and let people know it (again, if it happens) and that should be acceptable.

And so here it is. The end of the 2006 campaign is almost in sight. As we approach the final stop, I promise myself that I will not jump off the train...I'm sticking with what I'm saying until I get a rude awakening at the end of the line.


Santorum by less than one point."

-------------

However, it's important to note that that was 8 years ago, and it's time to stop holding it against him. If you disagree with Phil, refute him with a full counterargument, not just "And santorum's going to win too, right?". It's been 8 years, it was a reluctant prediction, and it was influenced by him being an active campaigner for Santorum. It's time to forget about it and quit using it against him.

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Panda Express
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« Reply #52 on: September 01, 2014, 02:11:26 am »

Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:
Quote
Al, the only PA Dem that could beat Santorum is Casey. That's it. Maybe Holden but other than that, Santorum will keep the seat. Casey has dismissed the idea of a run several times now. The Dems won't win here. However, if you'd like to take money out of VA and MO races to focus on PA, that's fine with me. All you'll be doing is wasting your money.
He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state Tongue.

LoL.

And tmth just moved to KS.
Born and raised here, been here for two years, and Kansas has similar values to Indiana.

That being said, while politically I'm probably the targeted swing voter, I also think about political implications more than the average Kansan, hence why I am leaning towards Brownback.

You're not a swing voter. You're a very solid republican hack. Not saying that in a demeaning way or anything, but let's be honest here. No swing voter votes Mourdock over Donnely or Brownback over Davis.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #53 on: September 01, 2014, 07:19:16 am »

And the claim by Icespear checks out.

Just for the record: that has never been in dispute. I don't deny the prediction. Never have. I think my second to last sentence is one of the most telling of the entire post, unsurprisingly always ignored by the crowd of people that just want to hold up my wrong prediction for a laugh or to prove some point.

To be fair, that makes my post much less of a prediction but people won't even give me hell for that. That's much less entertaining for them then saying what they say now.
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