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Author Topic: Robert Morris University (PA): Wolf leads by 31  (Read 1990 times)
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« on: September 02, 2014, 05:28:32 pm »

Wolf: 55.5%
Corbett: 24.7%
Undecided: 19.8%

(With Leaners: 60.3-26.8)

http://www.rmu.edu/cmp-media/docs/Poll/august2014fullreport-2.pdf

The sample is D+13, when I'd expect it to be more like D+9 on election day(PA pure registration is D+11, subtract a couple points or so to account for democratic midterm turnout disadvantage), but this is nevertheless terrible news for the Corbett Camp, as this is the first poll - EVER - to show a 30 point Wolf lead.

------------------------------------------
Other notes:
- A visit by Obama would hurt Wolf:
"Importantly, over one quarter of all Tom Wolf Independent supporters, 28.8%,
would be less likely to support him if President Barack Obama supported or
campaigned for him.  A smaller percent, 19.2%, indicated they would be less
likely to support Tom Wolf if Hillary Clinton was to support or campaign for
him."
- Common Core Approval: 65.5-27.3
- Those who have an opinion of Employee Unions narrowly disapprove of them: 33.6-32.8
- Approval of Right-To-Work Laws (after being reminded (by the pollster) that such laws prevent workers from having to join unions or pay union dues): 64.2-18.9






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LINCOLN - VOTE NO ON THE FLAWED PHILADELPHIA PLAN!!!!

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2019 GOV Ratings: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1bGAG7xF6fQTpNuyp5rJDDve4xGRuJM6WsXouSStfKNE
2020 House Rating - Toss-Up
Vega
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2014, 05:48:41 pm »

Yeah, you don't see a candidate leading by 31 points everyday.
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Badger
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2014, 05:50:56 pm »

But....but decimals!
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henster
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2014, 05:51:22 pm »

I don't know why the Obama team wants to visit PA do they think he's still popular there?
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Vega
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2014, 05:55:24 pm »

I can't imagine Obama endorsing Wolf would cost him more than two percentage points.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2014, 06:00:03 pm »

But....but decimals!
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2014, 06:12:58 pm »

Lean D
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2014, 06:15:52 pm »

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?
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Badger
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2014, 06:18:09 pm »

I don't know why the Obama team wants to visit PA do they think he's still popular there?

Who says he is? Maybe a fundraising dinner which tends to garner less publicity/hackles than a full-bore campaign rally?
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2014, 06:19:57 pm »

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2014, 06:45:09 pm »

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.

There are 19 seats separating the Democrats and Republican in the Pennsylvania State House, so it's in play, and the Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats - but I don't think it'll be enough to have the Democrats win the majority.

It all depends, though, and the Democrats just need 4 seats to pick up the Senate - which they'll meet and surpass.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2014, 09:13:05 pm »

Ironically, the House isn't thought to be in danger of flipping but the once thought to be safe GOP Senate might. However, a lot people think the GOP might get a net pickup of seats there!

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.

There are 19 seats separating the Democrats and Republican in the Pennsylvania State House, so it's in play, and the Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats - but I don't think it'll be enough to have the Democrats win the majority.

It all depends, though, and the Democrats just need 4 seats to pick up the Senate - which they'll meet and surpass.

There's no reason to be confident of that. The individual dynamics still favor the GOP in the "in play" seats and we are likely to pick up two western seats.
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
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« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2014, 09:54:30 pm »

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.

There are 19 seats separating the Democrats and Republican in the Pennsylvania State House, so it's in play, and the Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats - but I don't think it'll be enough to have the Democrats win the majority.

It all depends, though, and the Democrats just need 4 seats to pick up the Senate - which they'll meet and surpass.

That seems a bit optimistic. From what I've seen, the Senate looks to be tilt/lean R and the House looks to be likely/safeish R
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2014, 12:21:28 am »

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.

There are 19 seats separating the Democrats and Republican in the Pennsylvania State House, so it's in play, and the Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats - but I don't think it'll be enough to have the Democrats win the majority.

It all depends, though, and the Democrats just need 4 seats to pick up the Senate - which they'll meet and surpass.

That seems a bit optimistic. From what I've seen, the Senate looks to be tilt/lean R and the House looks to be likely/safeish R

Don't dems only need a 2 seat pickup in the Senate (27-23 split)?
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greenforest32
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2014, 12:57:35 am »

^ Isn't it true that the 2012 state legislative elections didn't even take place under the new maps?

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_State_Senate_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

Quote
The Pennsylvania Legislative Reapportionment Commission approved its final compromise maps on April 12, 2012, following the rejection of the first set by the state Supreme Court. Because they were passed after the signature filing deadline, the 2012 elections were held using the old maps with the new maps going into effect for the 2014 elections.[3]

Do we know if these new maps are more or less gerrymandered than the old ones?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2014, 01:22:21 am »

Obama should stay the f**k out of PA.

I'd like to see Wolf getting 65%, but with Obama campaigning there it's likely just 55% ...
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Flake
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« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2014, 02:48:47 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Governor by Other Source on 2014-08-22

Summary: D: 55.5%, R: 24.7%, I: 0%, U: 19.8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Badger
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« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2014, 09:18:56 am »

^ Isn't it true that the 2012 state legislative elections didn't even take place under the new maps?

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_State_Senate_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

Quote
The Pennsylvania Legislative Reapportionment Commission approved its final compromise maps on April 12, 2012, following the rejection of the first set by the state Supreme Court. Because they were passed after the signature filing deadline, the 2012 elections were held using the old maps with the new maps going into effect for the 2014 elections.[3]

Do we know if these new maps are more or less gerrymandered than the old ones?

Tough to say. It APPEARS from Ballotpedia (fwiw) that there was some kind of of judicial intervention?

At any rate, Ballotpedia lists 5 races the Democrats are targeting this year; 3 in suburban Philly, and two in the Allentown area. Of them one (Dist 26) is an open seat with a +3 D PVI. Two other districts (6 & 16) have +4 D PVIs, but also long-time GOP incumbents who won by substantial margins in 2010 (though one under 60%).

The other two races don't have their PVI mentioned, though one is a rematch from 2010 where the Democrat challenger lost by almost 30 points, and the other is an open seat around Monroe and northern Northampton counties where the Republican candidate is a long-time state rep from Monroe.

I'd like to hear Phil's take on the races, but Dems seem challenged to take the necessary second seat. No idea off hand about the State House prospects.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2014, 04:29:28 pm »

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.

There are 19 seats separating the Democrats and Republican in the Pennsylvania State House, so it's in play, and the Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats - but I don't think it'll be enough to have the Democrats win the majority.

It all depends, though, and the Democrats just need 4 seats to pick up the Senate - which they'll meet and surpass.

That seems a bit optimistic. From what I've seen, the Senate looks to be tilt/lean R and the House looks to be likely/safeish R

Don't dems only need a 2 seat pickup in the Senate (27-23 split)?

Yep but they're also at risk of losing two western seats. Their candidates in these hot races where they are on the offensive are less than stellar while the GOP has far better nominees (the Delaware county seat features a County Councilman while the new seat in the Poconos features popular, well known State Representative Scavello).

And this election is under the new maps.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2014, 04:41:39 pm »

Online poll + decimals = not buying this
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2014, 05:27:20 pm »

Obama should stay the f**k out of PA.

I'd like to see Wolf getting 65%, but with Obama campaigning there it's likely just 55% ...

Realistically, it's extremely unlikely any Republican (even Corbett) will be held under 40% regardless of what Obama does.

^ Isn't it true that the 2012 state legislative elections didn't even take place under the new maps?

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_State_Senate_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

Quote
The Pennsylvania Legislative Reapportionment Commission approved its final compromise maps on April 12, 2012, following the rejection of the first set by the state Supreme Court. Because they were passed after the signature filing deadline, the 2012 elections were held using the old maps with the new maps going into effect for the 2014 elections.[3]

Do we know if these new maps are more or less gerrymandered than the old ones?

Tough to say. It APPEARS from Ballotpedia (fwiw) that there was some kind of of judicial intervention?

At any rate, Ballotpedia lists 5 races the Democrats are targeting this year; 3 in suburban Philly, and two in the Allentown area. Of them one (Dist 26) is an open seat with a +3 D PVI. Two other districts (6 & 16) have +4 D PVIs, but also long-time GOP incumbents who won by substantial margins in 2010 (though one under 60%).

The other two races don't have their PVI mentioned, though one is a rematch from 2010 where the Democrat challenger lost by almost 30 points, and the other is an open seat around Monroe and northern Northampton counties where the Republican candidate is a long-time state rep from Monroe.

I'd like to hear Phil's take on the races, but Dems seem challenged to take the necessary second seat. No idea off hand about the State House prospects.

I actually live in District 26, so luckily my state Senate vote will actually be important. Smiley The Democratic candidate John Kane just released his first ad today. I haven't followed the campaign too closely, but the GOP definitely can't be written off here. The area is still pretty Republican down ballot. Of course, Wolf's potential coattails give a huge question mark to many of these races. He could drag many Dems across the finish line, or he could have basically no coattails like Christie in NJ.
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