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  LA-Rasmussen: Cassidy (R) takes the lead
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Author Topic: LA-Rasmussen: Cassidy (R) takes the lead  (Read 2358 times)
Dave Leip
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« Reply #25 on: September 05, 2014, 05:08:44 am »

New Poll: Louisiana Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-09-03

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, I: 9%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #26 on: September 05, 2014, 07:00:56 am »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.
Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.

He was at the top of the ticket when she won an outright majority in 2008. In fact, she outperformed Barack Obama that year by over 200,000 votes.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #27 on: September 06, 2014, 05:54:33 am »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.
Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.

And all of these things aren't already variables? I'm not an expert on LA demography or turnout, but something tells me that natural run-off turnout when compared to the general isn't as contrasting as it might be in, say, my own state - or at the very least, isn't as disadvantageous to Democrats.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #28 on: September 06, 2014, 11:08:18 am »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.
Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.

He was at the top of the ticket when she won an outright majority in 2008. In fact, she outperformed Barack Obama that year by over 200,000 votes.

2008 was also a wave year for Dems.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #29 on: September 06, 2014, 11:20:37 am »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.
Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.

But this is already nationalized. How a run off could change her situation, except it is the decisive seat for the senate majority.

Landrieu won 2 run-offs, why couldn't her win a 3th? (except if indeed the decisive seat for the senate majority is her seat).

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Talleyrand
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« Reply #30 on: September 06, 2014, 12:58:34 pm »

I'm not sure how much we can even compare the 1996 runoff at all to this election- if we use it as a base to go off of, it speaks poorly of Landrieu's chances. It was held in tandem with the 1996 presidential election, so you can't argue minorities had noticeably lower turnout, and saw her underperform Clinton in Louisiana by a twelve point margin, as he won the state comfortably. In addition, it was at a time when the state Democratic party still had serious muscle (which was still the case in 2002), instead of being the relative carcass it is now, and many conservative Southern voters had yet to desert the party.

As Tmth pointed out earlier, the environment isn't going to be favorable (unlike 2008's wave year), she faces a decent opponent who has outraised her, there is an extremely unpopular incumbent President of her party, she's been caught in unfavorable situations (like the residency fiasco or the private plane scandal), she's trailing or tied in all the polls taken, and not near the 50% margin she'll need to avoid a runoff. With national attention focused on her race in December, and decreased turnout from her traditional vote bases, she's going to have a very difficult time.

She'll lose by a solid margin, perhaps even double digits or close to double digits. Her ceiling in this race is probably somewhere around 48%.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #31 on: September 06, 2014, 10:44:47 pm »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.
Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.

He was at the top of the ticket when she won an outright majority in 2008. In fact, she outperformed Barack Obama that year by over 200,000 votes.

2008 was also a wave year for Dems.

That was also a state that Barack Obama lost by ~20.

It would be one thing to argue if Democrats' performance was inflated in Louisiana due to a wave, but don't pretend like this was the case here.

You're either joking or trolling, but I don't know which.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #32 on: September 06, 2014, 10:56:05 pm »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.
Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.

He was at the top of the ticket when she won an outright majority in 2008. In fact, she outperformed Barack Obama that year by over 200,000 votes.

2008 was also a wave year for Dems.

That was also a state that Barack Obama lost by ~20.

It would be one thing to argue if Democrats' performance was inflated in Louisiana due to a wave, but don't pretend like this was the case here.

You're either joking or trolling, but I don't know which.

It was a favorable year for Democrats running no matter the state. Mark Pryor didn't even get an opponent, Kent Conrad won very big, as did Jay Rockefeller, and both of those would've been at risk in a different year.
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