Talleyrand
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Posts: 4,518
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« on: September 06, 2014, 12:58:34 PM » |
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I'm not sure how much we can even compare the 1996 runoff at all to this election- if we use it as a base to go off of, it speaks poorly of Landrieu's chances. It was held in tandem with the 1996 presidential election, so you can't argue minorities had noticeably lower turnout, and saw her underperform Clinton in Louisiana by a twelve point margin, as he won the state comfortably. In addition, it was at a time when the state Democratic party still had serious muscle (which was still the case in 2002), instead of being the relative carcass it is now, and many conservative Southern voters had yet to desert the party.
As Tmth pointed out earlier, the environment isn't going to be favorable (unlike 2008's wave year), she faces a decent opponent who has outraised her, there is an extremely unpopular incumbent President of her party, she's been caught in unfavorable situations (like the residency fiasco or the private plane scandal), she's trailing or tied in all the polls taken, and not near the 50% margin she'll need to avoid a runoff. With national attention focused on her race in December, and decreased turnout from her traditional vote bases, she's going to have a very difficult time.
She'll lose by a solid margin, perhaps even double digits or close to double digits. Her ceiling in this race is probably somewhere around 48%.
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