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  AR-CNN: Cotton+2
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Author Topic: AR-CNN: Cotton+2  (Read 1149 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 05, 2014, 06:38:53 am »

Likely voters, Aug. 28-Sept. 2:

49% Cotton (R)
47% Pryor (D)

Link later.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2014, 06:59:31 am »

The link with crosstabs:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/05/cnn.orc.ar.poll.pdf

Quote
Likely Voters: 49-47 Cotton
Registered Voters: 47-38 Pryor

Quote
Obama approval:

LV: 34-63
RV: 34-59
Adults: 33-60
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2014, 07:00:43 am »

Unlikely that Cotton would improve by this much from RV -> LV.

#LaborDayPolling
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2014, 07:06:31 am »

Eh, a 2% Cotton lead is what PPP/HC found in July.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2014, 07:18:12 am »

So, this is going to be close?
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backtored
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« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2014, 09:55:49 am »

Cotton will win by at least a few points.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2014, 10:13:56 am »

That's a weird variance between likely and registered voters. Cotton needs to be up by more than two to win this, because Pryor can easily close that gap.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2014, 10:20:40 am »

Not new for CNN, as RRH points out.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2014, 12:32:32 pm »

A lot of these races have been remarkably stable. I'd imagine that unless debates provide a game changer, what we see now may be what we get. Then again, there are September and October surprises.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2014, 12:33:04 pm »

Very, very weird LV screen. Plausible result, but the methodology makes me a little skeptical.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2014, 12:35:48 pm »

The race goes 11% more Cotton with likely voters? Simply no way in hell for that to happen. At best he might gain 1 to 3 extra points [but with minimum wage on the ballot, likely voters might actually turn out to be more Democratic-friendly than anything].
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2014, 05:09:08 pm »

That's a weird variance between likely and registered voters. Cotton needs to be up by more than two to win this, because Pryor can easily close that gap.

Come on now, when you're trailing in a poll, you can't somehow say the other side's the one in danger. 

The LV/RV discrepancy seems odd, but given the fact that Obama's approval is rock-bottom among RVs as well, it seems like a bit of a weird sample.

Still, not good news for Pryor.  The turnout of this race will be R-favored, most likely.
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KCDem
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« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2014, 09:55:16 pm »

The LV-RV split is 11 points...waaay too large and typical CNN. This race is a dead heat.
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