Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 16, 2019, 04:58:53 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
| | | | |-+  CO/AR-Marist: Hick and Hutch ahead
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: CO/AR-Marist: Hick and Hutch ahead  (Read 1120 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,941
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 07, 2014, 09:12:22 am »

CO (likely voters)Sad

43% John Hickenlooper (D)
39% Bob Beauprez (R)
  5% Matthew Hess (L)
  4% Harry Hempy (G)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/97-colorado-udall-ahead-of-gardner-in-u-s-senate-race-hickenlooper-edges-beauprez-for-governor

AR (likely voters)Sad

48% Asa Hutchinson (R)
39% Mike Ross (D)
  3% Frank Gilbert (L)
  3% Josh Drake (G)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/97-arkansas-cotton-leads-pryor-in-u-s-senate-race-hutchinson-ahead-of-ross-in-governors-race
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,941
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2014, 09:13:44 am »

Harry Hempy is a pretty cool name for a Green Party candidate ...
Logged
GaussLaw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,292
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2014, 09:57:26 am »

Wow, this looks like further proof that Dems may have a real turnout problem in Arkansas.  IIRC, Marist had Pryor up something like 10 when it was only RVs polled.  Of course, the polls may be exaggerating this, but the RV/LV discrepancy seems to be popping up multiple times.
Logged


Uhhhh, I don't wanna decide. When we're left, I'm right, and vice-versa. Physics. Bible.

PM:
E: 1.52
S: 4.67
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2014, 02:01:05 pm »

It's looking like Democrats will sweep Colorado for a fifth election year in a row! It's definitely still a toss-up swing-state though. Definitely.
Logged

fuck nazis
Mayor Steve Pearce
SawxDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,885
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2014, 02:16:05 pm »

Looks generally reasonable.
Logged

Quote from: Snowguy716
Sawx, pop a molly and you will fit in anywhere.  You are supergeil.

Sawx the womanizer Tongue.
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2014, 03:13:44 pm »

Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.

- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters

Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.
Logged

NHLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2014, 03:31:00 pm »

Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.

- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters

Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.

I agree with you. Pryor's only obvious advantage is incumbency, but that shouldn't be enough to counter everything you listed. Anyone from the state or who knows it really well able to shed some light? Maybe he's just running a superior campaign?
Logged

Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
GaussLaw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,292
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2014, 05:16:12 pm »

Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.

- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters

Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.

I agree with you. Pryor's only obvious advantage is incumbency, but that shouldn't be enough to counter everything you listed. Anyone from the state or who knows it really well able to shed some light? Maybe he's just running a superior campaign?

I actually think Hutch is a stronger candidate than Cotton.  Hutchison is way less polarizing and fairly centrist(look at some of his ads on education, for instance).  Incumbency is also big too.
Logged


Uhhhh, I don't wanna decide. When we're left, I'm right, and vice-versa. Physics. Bible.

PM:
E: 1.52
S: 4.67
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,312
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2014, 05:16:59 pm »

Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.

- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters

Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.

I agree with you. Pryor's only obvious advantage is incumbency, but that shouldn't be enough to counter everything you listed. Anyone from the state or who knows it really well able to shed some light? Maybe he's just running a superior campaign?

AR vetos can't stick because of simple majority override and the legislature will only get more R.  That could be hindering his funding/base enthusiasm behind the scenes?
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,378
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2014, 09:49:49 pm »

Who are all these Pryor/Hutchinson voters!? It should be the opposite.
Logged


JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,219
United States


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2014, 09:54:49 pm »

I really don't know what's happening.  Ross should be doing much better. 
Logged

Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,561
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2014, 10:39:37 pm »

The third party candidates were listed as options, not merely if volunteered by pollees, right?

Memo to all pollsters: unless the 3rd party candidate is at least orman/pressler level popularity already, stop. Doing. That!
Logged

In America, it's easier to con somebody than to convince them they've been conned.-- Mark Twain.
TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,996
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2014, 11:06:31 pm »

Who are all these Pryor/Hutchinson voters!? It should be the opposite.

I've heard Hutchinson has done some really good ad campaigns showing himself in a positive good-governmenty sorta light whereas Cotton hasn't really. It might be a matter of voters sometimes preferring to be told what you're for rather than what you're against.
Logged

Truth is more important than experience.
backtored
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 503
Vatican City State


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2014, 09:51:25 am »

It's looking like Democrats will sweep Colorado for a fifth election year in a row! It's definitely still a toss-up swing-state though. Definitely.

This poll is terrible for Hickenlooper.  He's only up four with the Libertarian getting 5%?  That's all?  In a Marist poll that gives Udall a very generous lead at least a few points larger than any other pollster?

Beauprez looks very, very strong at this point.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines