Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.
- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters
Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.
I agree with you. Pryor's only obvious advantage is incumbency, but that shouldn't be enough to counter everything you listed. Anyone from the state or who knows it really well able to shed some light? Maybe he's just running a superior campaign?
I actually think Hutch is a stronger candidate than Cotton. Hutchison is way less polarizing and fairly centrist(look at some of his ads on education, for instance). Incumbency is also big too.