KS-SurveyUSA: Orman by 1, even with Taylor

[free my dawg]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrint.aspx?g=0a2033d2-f10f-4df5-b51b-d9a895325778&d=0

Orman 37
Roberts 36
Taylor 10
Lib 6

Great news, blahblahblah.

[KCDem]

[Lief 🗽]

Taylor won't get anywhere near 10%. Roberts is fcked.

[Maxwell]

I don't particularly care about this race (Boring religious conservative vs. know nothing moderate hero), but Roberts' aggressive tactics will probably put him back ahead soon enough. Republicans only back Roberts 59-26 now, that will likely change soon. Then again, so will Chad Taylor's support among Democrats. However, I do think Taylor's presence on the ballot posses a problem for Orman ahead, since some voters are uninformed and will vote party line no matter what. If he runs a good GOTV operation, he has a chance, but if not, that will sink him.

[Dixie Reborn]

Roberts is only in the mid-thirties because butthurt Teapartiers are still butthurt that they couldn't knock him off. At election day, nearly all of them will end up voting for Roberts.

[DrScholl]

The Tea Party isn't Roberts' problem. Roberts' main issue is his residency and how he has been so open about the fact that he doesn't really live in the state. Kansas has plenty of moderate Republicans that would be willing to back Orman, and that is where Roberts is going to run into some trouble.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Survey USA on 2014-09-07

Summary: D: 10%, R: 36%, I: 37%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Thankfully voters appear to be well aware of Taylor's desire to not run at all, as only 10% are saying they will still vote for him. If that number goes down further by election day (and it should do so at least slightly) Orman's vote share should climb even higher. However, if the libertarian's vote share goes down between now and election day, it may benefit Roberts, making things harder for Orman.

Orman will probably have to make it clear that he will caucus with the republicans if he's the deciding vote in order to win.

---------------
None of us would have guessed a month ago that this would be one of the most pure toss-ups of the cycle, but that's what it's become.

[Brewer]

Is Taylor expected to make appearances in ads for Orman or whatnot to increase awareness regarding Democrats unifying around Orman? Or is he simply mentioning the fact at his campaign events?

[Panda Express]

Pat Roberts is 78? I had no idea he was that old. I watched a bit of the debate between him and Orman and he sounded pretty sharp.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Roberts is only in the mid-thirties because butthurt Teapartiers are still butthurt that they couldn't knock him off. At election day, nearly all of them will end up voting for Roberts.

Only 8% of conservatives are undecided, versus 11% overall. And most of Taylor's voters should move to Orman.

[Maxwell]

Roberts is only in the mid-thirties because butthurt Teapartiers are still butthurt that they couldn't knock him off. At election day, nearly all of them will end up voting for Roberts.

Only 8% of conservatives are undecided, versus 11% overall. And most of Taylor's voters should move to Orman.

That's true, but as of this moment, It's hard to believe that most of Orman's support amongst Republicans is solid. That is more likely to shift.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Great news!

[backtored]

Roberts is only in the mid-thirties because butthurt Teapartiers are still butthurt that they couldn't knock him off. At election day, nearly all of them will end up voting for Roberts.

Only 8% of conservatives are undecided, versus 11% overall. And most of Taylor's voters should move to Orman.

Yeah, I have a hard time seeing Roberts losing this race.  The only thing that concerns me is the general toxicity of the GOP ticket in the state.  If Davis has any coattails, it may be enough to knock out Roberts.

That's true, but as of this moment, It's hard to believe that most of Orman's support amongst Republicans is solid. That is more likely to shift.

[memphis]

I'd like to see an (R) removed as much as anybody else, but this residency business is the biggest bunch of nonsense ever. Kansans select a man for a job half way across the country and then are mad because he no longer lives in the state? Did they expect him to commute on I-70 each morning or take a private jet? What a bunch of hogwash!

[Zanas]

Orman will probably have to make it clear that he will caucus with the republicans if he's the deciding vote in order to win.

I have not been following this. Why would the Dems endorse someone who's gonna caucus with the Reps (I don't think you say that, do you ? Rather Pubs ? Just GOP ?) over their own candidate who seems to have dropped out ?

[windjammer]

Orman will probably have to make it clear that he will caucus with the republicans if he's the deciding vote in order to win.

I have not been following this. Why would the Dems endorse someone who's gonna caucus with the Reps (I don't think you say that, do you ? Rather Pubs ? Just GOP ?) over their own candidate who seems to have dropped out ?

Because Orman will caucus with the democrats.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Orman will probably have to make it clear that he will caucus with the republicans if he's the deciding vote in order to win.

I have not been following this. Why would the Dems endorse someone who's gonna caucus with the Reps (I don't think you say that, do you ? Rather Pubs ? Just GOP ?) over their own candidate who seems to have dropped out ?

Orman is a Perot voter who can play ball with either team. Roberts had a near perfect Republican scorecard the last 2 years to try and fend off a primary. From a Democrat pov I'd rather have someone who will vote with me 40% of the time, criticize the opposition from time to time, and possibly caucus with me if the opposition gets out of control. Especially when the Dem candidate never would have won.