Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 24, 2019, 12:26:14 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
| | | | |-+  FL-Mason Dixon/Telemundo/Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association: Scott+2
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: FL-Mason Dixon/Telemundo/Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association: Scott+2  (Read 1508 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 07, 2014, 05:03:09 am »

43% Scott (R)
41% Crist (D)
  4% Wylie (L)

The survey of 625 likely voters was conducted Sept. 2-4, and Mason-Dixon cautioned that its sample reflects current voter registration in Florida (41 percent Democrat, 37 percent Republican, 21 percent other), and "does not assume a higher or lower turnout by either political party." Considering the Republican turnout is consistently at least 4 percentage points higher than Democrats in off-year elections, it's reasonable to assume Scott would have a higher lead if the sample reflected the likely voter turnout.

Quote
From Mason-Dixon's Brad Coker:

Republican incumbent Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Charlie Crist remain locked in a tight race for governor, with Scott holding a narrow 43%-41% lead statewide among likely Florida voters. Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie draws 4%, while other candidates on the ballot get 1% and 11% remain undecided. The race was tied at 42%-42% in April.

Scott runs strong in North Florida (54%-32%) and Southwest Florida (52%-32%) and has a smaller lead in Central Florida (44%-38%). Crist has a wide lead in Southeast Florida (50%-35%) and a smaller one in his home Tampa Bay region (45%-38%).

Other results show that Scott continues to run stronger with Republicans, men, whites and voters over the age of 65. Crist leads among Democrats, women, blacks and voters under 35.
Voters between the ages of 35 and 64 are about evenly divided. Hispanics (44%-39%) and Independents (40%-37%) lean slightly to Crist. The number of undecided voters in these groups is high.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/poll-rick-scott-43-charlie-crist-41/2196482
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2014, 09:35:53 am »

> mason-dixon
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,705


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2014, 09:54:22 am »

Remember when people around here used to get a Tingle Up Their Leg (TM) at the very mention of a Mason Dixon poll?
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,832
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2014, 10:28:40 am »

Clearly Hispanics will decide the outcome of this election.
Logged
Mayor Steve Pearce
SawxDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,924
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2014, 02:16:32 pm »

>mason-dixon
Logged
King Francis I
windjammer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,649
France


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2014, 02:22:35 pm »

Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,342


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2014, 02:26:55 pm »

Sad that SUSA seems to be the only reliable pollster around in Florida.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,875
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2014, 09:45:20 pm »

Scott won whites by 15 in 2010 and most polls have him up by less this time. Odd that combined with demographic change some polls have him winning by more than 2010.
Logged
Panda Express
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,157


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2014, 10:03:44 pm »

Look who decided to show their ugly face around these parts. It's Mason-Dixon, the bastard child in the family of pollsters. Is this the first time Mason-Dixon has appeared since the 2012 election?
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,875
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2014, 10:14:55 pm »

PPP is doing Florida this weekend so we should have a fairly reliable poll soon.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2014, 10:19:58 pm »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8c8WDz8nzpE
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,898
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2014, 10:36:41 pm »

Anyone care to explain what precisely is wrong with this poll? Other than itdoesn't support the finding many here wanted?
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2014, 10:38:04 pm »

Anyone care to explain what precisely is wrong with this poll? Other than itdoesn't support the finding many here wanted?

Mason-Dixon is very, very bad.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,699
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2014, 05:11:24 am »

Anyone care to explain what precisely is wrong with this poll? Other than itdoesn't support the finding many here wanted?

Mason-Dixon is very, very bad.

Why though?
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,699
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2014, 05:12:00 am »

Look who decided to show their ugly face around these parts. It's Mason-Dixon, the bastard child in the family of pollsters. Is this the first time Mason-Dixon has appeared since the 2012 election?

I thought that was Rass
Logged
Worried Italian Progressive
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,613
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2014, 05:25:31 am »

Anyone care to explain what precisely is wrong with this poll? Other than itdoesn't support the finding many here wanted?

Mason-Dixon is very, very bad.

Why though?

Romney lead in 2012...
Logged
backtored
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 503
Vatican City State


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2014, 09:53:06 am »

Anyone care to explain what precisely is wrong with this poll? Other than itdoesn't support the finding many here wanted?

Mason-Dixon is very, very bad.

Are you saying that Crist is actually ahead?  Say what you want about Mason-Dixon or any other pollster, but I don't think there is too much doubt that Scott probably does have a slim lead at this point.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,875
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2014, 02:31:20 pm »

Mason-Dixon had Romney winning Florida by 6 in 2012, that is the mark of a bad pollster. 7 points off.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2014, 03:11:06 pm »

Quote
Mitt Romney will score a vital victory in Florida, a pollster for one of the state’s most influential newspapers confidently predicted Saturday after his latest survey gave the Republican challenger a six-point lead.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Brad Coker who conducted the Mason-Dixon poll for the Miami Herald. “Will it be five points? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

Well at least he wasn't completely wrong.
Logged
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,919
United States



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 08, 2014, 03:22:30 pm »

7% off was pretty bad and it could call into question what sort of likely voter screen they are using. It's not an immature matter of Mason-Dixon being bad just because Crist isn't up, it's the fact that they were so wrong in a previous Florida poll. Not every poll is labeled bad simply for partisan reasons, some pollsters just have bad records....
Logged
Panda Express
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,157


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 08, 2014, 09:50:05 pm »

Anyone care to explain what precisely is wrong with this poll? Other than itdoesn't support the finding many here wanted?

I've been thinking Crist will lose for a while now. So I could believe a 2 point lead for Scott. I just harbor animosity for Mason-Dixon's arrogance and stupidity from the 2012 election.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2014, 10:09:45 pm by Panda Express »Logged
Panda Express
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,157


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 08, 2014, 09:54:44 pm »

Look who decided to show their ugly face around these parts. It's Mason-Dixon, the bastard child in the family of pollsters. Is this the first time Mason-Dixon has appeared since the 2012 election?

I thought that was Rass

Nah dawg, Rass is the drug-dealer child who is trying to get clean but nobody still trusts. PPP is the president of Student Council who everyone loves and admires and wants to bang.
Logged
NHLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 08, 2014, 10:03:35 pm »

Look who decided to show their ugly face around these parts. It's Mason-Dixon, the bastard child in the family of pollsters. Is this the first time Mason-Dixon has appeared since the 2012 election?

I thought that was Rass

Nah dawg, Rass is the drug-dealer child who is trying to get clean but nobody still trusts. PPP is the president of Student Council who everyone loves and admires and wants to bang.

And who, as a result, always attracts some resentment from misinformed naysayers who constantly try to put it down but are always proven wrong when she succeeds yet again.
Logged
KCDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,932


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 08, 2014, 10:43:30 pm »

Look who decided to show their ugly face around these parts. It's Mason-Dixon, the bastard child in the family of pollsters. Is this the first time Mason-Dixon has appeared since the 2012 election?

I thought that was Rass

Nah dawg, Rass is the drug-dealer child who is trying to get clean but nobody still trusts. PPP is the president of Student Council who everyone loves and admires and wants to bang.

As if people on this forum get any action lol
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines