Here's the actual link to the poll.Let me just reiterate that I don't think Fitzy can win anymore. None of us did after the damage was done on Fitzy's image which was expressed in the polls. Some of Fitzy's endorsements are being withdrawn all while Kasich's gaining endorsements such as from the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, he's funneling his cash to other campaigns like Lee Fisher's awful 2010 Senate campaign did, and Kasich/RGA are still airing ad after ad after ad in the state. The down-ballot Democrats have even outraised Fitzy and now Fitzy trails Kasich in fundraising 11 to 1. He's done, and nobody can argue otherwise.
If you look at the crosstabs, while FitzGerald still will lose, he won't be losing by a Corbett margin. There are a heck of a lot more undecided Democrats not behind FitzGerald yet while most Republicans are already backing Kasich. Republicans back Kasich 84-4 with 12% undecided and Democrats back FitzGerald 57-18 with 26% undecided. There's only one third party candidate and she won't get more than about 3-4%, so Fitzy still has a little room to improve his losing margin against Kasich.
Depending on what the voter turnout looks like and how strong we can GOTV for down-ballot candidates, will also depend on that. If turnout's anything like 2002 or 2010, then expect Fitzy to lose by mid-teens, but if turnout's better and is closer to 2006, he may only lose by high single digits then. GOTV is still important even if FitzGerald's doomed and the interest in the races has actually shown signs of increasing.
Also, for what it's worth, Fitzy does have leads among voters who want a Governor that "understands ordinary people", but is doing horribly among women, low-income and younger voters even though he's made his campaign off of those 3. Kasich also has a good showing among Tea Party voters despite Medicaid expansion. Zawistowski apparently wants Tea Partiers to just not vote at all in the Governor race without Charlie Earl, but that effort seems to be futile.
The state party strategy right now is wise to avoid mention of FitzGerald around people and continue to campaign for candidates who can win (Pillich, Turner, O'Donnell, and maybe Carney). Ed still wants to campaign, and I don't personally blame him since he gave up a lot (his position as CC Exec.) to run for Governor, but I think he realizes behind the positive pro-Ed messages brought on by Lauren Hitt that he's done. The best he can do now is hope he doesn't lose in a blowout so that he can run for something like State Rep. or State Sen. in 2018.