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  IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
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Author Topic: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead  (Read 2706 times)
Miles
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« on: September 12, 2014, 07:11:24 am »
« edited: September 12, 2014, 07:22:10 am by Miles »

Better link coming.

RVs
Braley (D)- 50%
Ernst (R)- 42%

LVs
Braley- 49%
Ernst- 48%
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KCDem
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2014, 07:20:47 am »

RV to LV screen continues to be a joke.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2014, 07:27:18 am »

The big RV/LV gap either means that A) Republicans are currently more motivated to vote or B) that Democrats are actually favoured if they have a sophisticated GOTV-machine on election day.

Lean more to A) though ...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2014, 11:04:12 am »

RV to LV screen continues to be a joke.

Yes, I'm extremely skeptical the RV vs. LV discrepancy is THIS huge.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2014, 11:30:04 am »

The big RV/LV gap either means that A) Republicans are currently more motivated to vote or B) that Democrats are actually favoured if they have a sophisticated GOTV-machine on election day.

Lean more to A) though ...

Indeed. But that could account for a 2-3-4 points difference between LV and RV. Not 7 and 8.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2014, 12:20:51 pm »

This poll is weird. Do we believe a PPP poll commissioned by a LIBERAL group, or a CNN poll in the MoE with a huge discrepancy?
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2014, 12:30:18 pm »

Doesn't CNN generally have a large gap between RV and LV?
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2014, 12:55:10 pm »

^ Yeah, at least in their recent polls.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2014, 06:04:53 pm »

Doesn't CNN generally have a large gap between RV and LV?

Exactly.  Interestingly, the CNN polls LV results look similar to other polls' results, but the RV ones are much more Democratic-favored. 

I would say this is Tilt D at this point, but Ernst could still win this.
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KCDem
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2014, 07:45:18 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2014, 08:01:28 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure
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KCDem
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2014, 08:18:01 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8
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Vega
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2014, 08:23:02 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.
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KCDem
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2014, 08:24:24 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.
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Vega
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2014, 08:25:30 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.
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KCDem
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2014, 08:30:55 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.

Yes, but likely voters aren't the only part of the likely electorate. Likely voters are the floor of participation, registered voters the ceiling. Reality is somewhere in the middle. Luckily an unlikely vote counts just as much as a likely vote.
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Vega
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« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2014, 08:33:24 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.

Yes, but likely voters aren't the only part of the likely electorate. Likely voters are the floor of participation, registered voters the ceiling. Reality is somewhere in the middle. Luckily an unlikely vote counts just as much as a likely vote.

I'm not saying Likely Voters are perfect - far from it. However, it paints a more accurate picture than Registered Voters.
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KCDem
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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2014, 08:40:05 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.

Yes, but likely voters aren't the only part of the likely electorate. Likely voters are the floor of participation, registered voters the ceiling. Reality is somewhere in the middle. Luckily an unlikely vote counts just as much as a likely vote.

I'm not saying Likely Voters are perfect - far from it. However, it paints a more accurate picture than Registered Voters.

That depends on the tightness of the likely voter screen.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2014, 09:24:37 pm »

Braley is beating back Ernest and her army of dumb farmers.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2014, 10:25:43 pm »

Braley is beating back Ernest and her army of dumb farmers.

Don't say that in Iowa. They'll linchpin you then
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Vega
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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2014, 10:27:35 pm »

Braley is beating back Ernest and her army of dumb farmers.

Don't say that in Iowa. They'll linchpin you then

And then you'll start trailing Joni Ernst.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2014, 11:26:58 pm »

I'm instantly skeptical of a LV screen that generates those types of discrepancies. Remember those from the Presidential that had Obama up by 1 with LV and 11 with RV.

I think Braley is up by 2-3 FWIW
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2014, 03:56:44 am »

So that PPP poll was clearly an outlier. Phew.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2014, 06:11:05 am »

So that PPP poll was clearly an outlier. Phew.

The PPP poll was more than two weeks old. It seems that Ernst's campaign took many hits since then, a fact that even Republicans admit according to Amy Walter.
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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2014, 10:40:37 am »

If I were a Republican, I wouldn't even want Ernst to win. She'll harm the party by being such an embarrassment way more than her individual vote will help.

One senator either way, even when "control" is at stake, means very little. The exact count only matters when one party is approaching 60, and that's pretty unlikely to happen either way in the next 6 years.

And yes, I would say the same thing in real life if the Democrats had nominated a liberal equivalent of her in one of the close races.
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