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  IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead  (Read 2748 times)
Vega
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« on: September 12, 2014, 08:23:02 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.
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Vega
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2014, 08:25:30 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.
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Vega
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Posts: 5,284
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2014, 08:33:24 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.

Yes, but likely voters aren't the only part of the likely electorate. Likely voters are the floor of participation, registered voters the ceiling. Reality is somewhere in the middle. Luckily an unlikely vote counts just as much as a likely vote.

I'm not saying Likely Voters are perfect - far from it. However, it paints a more accurate picture than Registered Voters.
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Vega
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Posts: 5,284
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2014, 10:27:35 pm »

Braley is beating back Ernest and her army of dumb farmers.

Don't say that in Iowa. They'll linchpin you then

And then you'll start trailing Joni Ernst.
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