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Author Topic: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset?  (Read 1633 times)
Miles
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« on: September 12, 2014, 11:32:45 am »

Link coming.

Ige (D)- 40%
Aiona (R)- 39%
Hanneman (I)- 14%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2014, 12:01:58 pm »

Ige will pull it off.
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backtored
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2014, 12:07:37 pm »

Toss-up.  I think Duke has a great shot here.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2014, 12:59:40 pm »

Interesting. I would've expected Ige to be dominating after his historic primary performance.
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SWE
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2014, 03:08:02 pm »

>Hawaii polls
>Rasmussen
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2014, 03:44:59 pm »

Rassy polling in Hawaii is a recipe for disaster.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2014, 04:18:52 pm »

Rassy polling in Hawaii is a recipe for disaster.

Eh, I wouldn't say so. Rassy is the only pollster that under-bid the performance of Neil Abercrombie over Duke Aiona (their last poll had it at 58-32, it ended up 58-40). The worst pollster in Hawaii, for my money, is actually PPP, who had a poll a month before election with Abercrombie only up 2. Rassy is not good here, much like else where, but it's better than the other pollsters in the region.
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Andrew1
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2014, 04:49:51 pm »

Rassy polling in Hawaii is a recipe for disaster.

Anyone remember their 2010 Senate poll with Cavasso on 40% ? He got 22% !
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2014, 04:51:24 pm »

^ Maxwell, that was their penultimate poll. Their final poll only had Abercrombie up 2.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2014, 05:00:13 pm »

^ Maxwell, that was their penultimate poll. Their final poll only had Abercrombie up 2.

That was rassy? oh, my bad. Yea, rassy is terrible, withdrawn.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2014, 05:03:49 pm »

Ige will pull it off.
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KCDem
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2014, 05:52:40 pm »

No, Ige will win easily.
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Vega
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2014, 05:59:33 pm »

Bullsh*t. Hawaii polling sucks and this is an example of it. Ige will win by at least 6 points. I also don't see how Hannemann is polling above 10%.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2014, 06:07:24 pm »

Given what happened with Lingle, I could easily see Ige win by 15-20+ points, but we really don't know until election day.
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Vega
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2014, 06:37:13 pm »

Given what happened with Lingle, I could easily see Ige win by 15-20+ points, but we really don't know until election day.

From almost everything I've heard on the ground, Ige is very popular. He ought to win a quite respectable victory.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2014, 08:51:34 am »

I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history.
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Vega
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2014, 09:55:04 am »

I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history.

If you add "How hard it is to poll accurately in Hawaii" and Rasmussen, it's not a pretty combination.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2014, 09:56:03 am »

RASMUSSEN
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○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2014, 02:14:41 am »

I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history.

If you add "How hard it is to poll accurately in Hawaii" and Rasmussen, it's not a pretty combination.

LOL

Quote
1* If the 2010 election for United States senate were held today would you vote for Republican Cam Cavasso or Democrat Dan Inouye? (Please note that we split the survey to rotate the order of the candidate names, so while half will hear the Republican candidate first, the other half hears the Democrat mentioned first.)
 
40% Cavasso
53% Inouye
  3% Some Other Candidate
  4% Not sure
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/hawaii/questions/questions_hawaii_senate_october_13_2010

Rasmussen probably thought the Republican wave was going to hit Hawaii. I think that wave ended up somewhere around Antartica instead. Democrats won this particular Senate race by 53 points, gained the governor race, and defeated all but 1 Republican in the state Senate.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2014, 01:23:30 pm »

Hawaii polls. Ige should win, but if Abercrombie somehow survived this would probably be Toss-up or lean R.
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Vega
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« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2014, 01:49:16 pm »

Hawaii polls. Ige should win, but if Abercrombie somehow survived this would probably be Toss-up or lean R.

Had Abercrombie won the primary, Hannemann would have become a bigger threat. The two of them and their supporters have some bad blood from the 2010 primary.

That isn't a problem now, because Ige picks up alot of Hannemann voters.
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