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Author Topic: ME-PPP/MCVAF: Michaud+1  (Read 2491 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 15, 2014, 02:31:15 am »

Public Policy Polling (D) for Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund (D, R, I ?):

43% Michaud (D)
42% LePage (R)
11% Cutler (I)

PPP interviewed 1,059 likely voters on September 8th and 9th. The margin of error for the poll is +/-3.0%. This survey was conducted on behalf of Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund, paid for by Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund, 295 Water Street, Suite 9, Augusta, Maine and NOT PAID FOR OR AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_MainePoll_914.pdf
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Free Bird
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2014, 02:33:41 am »

Seems about right. Within the MoE, but it seems Cutler is losing traction. This really is only bad news for Michaud if you think about it
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Knives
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2014, 02:41:23 am »

Cutler is one selfish prick.
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SWE
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2014, 05:40:33 am »

Seems about right. Within the MoE, but it seems Cutler is losing traction. This really is only bad news for Michaud if you think about it
How is Cutler losing traction bad news for Michaud?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2014, 06:04:46 am »

Seems about right. Within the MoE, but it seems Cutler is losing traction. This really is only bad news for Michaud if you think about it
How is Cutler losing traction bad news for Michaud?

Well think about it. Michaud is only up 1 (maybe not even then) with this lukewarm Cutler support. If he spikes to even just 15-18%, Michaud is done.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2014, 09:57:36 am »

I have the feeling Lepage will win.

And since the beginning.

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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2014, 09:59:49 am »

Michaud leads 50/46 in a two-way, which seems a bit underwhelming to me.
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2014, 10:34:00 am »

I have the feeling Lepage will win.

And since the beginning.



This is what I've come to think. As it stands, I think LePage will just hit over 40% and squeak out another win. If Cutler gains traction again in October then it will be more difficult for Michaud to win, since LePage's support is pretty stable. This could actually be one of the closest elections of the night for all we know, but my gut feeling tells me LePage wins and the liberals cry.
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KCDem
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2014, 10:37:21 am »

The result is tight because this poll is meant to encourage liberal donors and voters to not get complacent. LePage is toast.
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Secretary of Billionaire Affairs Pete Buttigieg ($-IN)
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2014, 10:43:37 am »

Not feeling good about this, and it is Cutler's fault. Ugh. I love third party candidates, but LePage needs to go, desperately.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2014, 11:09:41 am »

Uuurrrggghhh.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2014, 01:40:49 pm »

Not feeling good about this, and it is Cutler's fault. Ugh. I love third party candidates, but LePage needs to go, desperately.

And whys that?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2014, 01:58:19 pm »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2014, 03:01:17 pm »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2014, 03:11:42 pm »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Take a look at Cutler's trajectory in wiki. Cutler is trending downward. And yet LePage is continuing to hold on. Even in a two-way match-up, Michaud has been shrinking to only a 4 point lead over LePage (last PPP poll showed Michaud up 7 to LePage head-to-head, the one before that [admittedly nearly a year ago] had Michaud up 14 to LePage). This is a sign of LePage's own improvement in spite of Cutler's constant downward trend.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2014, 12:43:55 am »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Yet still among the most accurate?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2014, 03:39:42 am »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Yet still among the most accurate?

Perhaps because 2012 was just a good year for the left in general? Not saying they're unrelated, but the correlation, from what I have seen, doesn't occur in non-left favored cycles
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2014, 05:10:24 am »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Yet still among the most accurate?

Perhaps because 2012 was just a good year for the left in general? Not saying they're unrelated, but the correlation, from what I have seen, doesn't occur in non-left favored cycles

Wha? It doesn't usually work like that. PPP actually had the smallest house effect in 2010 as well. Rasmussen did badly in 2010 and by that reasoning they should have done well in a 'right' year.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #18 on: September 16, 2014, 05:33:10 am »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Yet still among the most accurate?

Perhaps because 2012 was just a good year for the left in general? Not saying they're unrelated, but the correlation, from what I have seen, doesn't occur in non-left favored cycles

No, you are wrong.
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KCDem
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« Reply #19 on: September 16, 2014, 07:15:03 am »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Yet still among the most accurate?

Perhaps because 2012 was just a good year for the left in general? Not saying they're unrelated, but the correlation, from what I have seen, doesn't occur in non-left favored cycles

Wha? It doesn't usually work like that. PPP actually had the smallest house effect in 2010 as well. Rasmussen did badly in 2010 and by that reasoning they should have done well in a 'right' year.

Don't try to reason with people like him. They don't, and rather just yell "muh freduhm!!!"
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Free Bird
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« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2014, 07:00:56 pm »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Yet still among the most accurate?

Perhaps because 2012 was just a good year for the left in general? Not saying they're unrelated, but the correlation, from what I have seen, doesn't occur in non-left favored cycles

Wha? It doesn't usually work like that. PPP actually had the smallest house effect in 2010 as well. Rasmussen did badly in 2010 and by that reasoning they should have done well in a 'right' year.

Don't try to reason with people like him. They don't, and rather just yell "muh freduhm!!!"

I'm not very fond of being demonized
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KCDem
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« Reply #21 on: September 16, 2014, 07:29:37 pm »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Yet still among the most accurate?

Perhaps because 2012 was just a good year for the left in general? Not saying they're unrelated, but the correlation, from what I have seen, doesn't occur in non-left favored cycles

Wha? It doesn't usually work like that. PPP actually had the smallest house effect in 2010 as well. Rasmussen did badly in 2010 and by that reasoning they should have done well in a 'right' year.

Don't try to reason with people like him. They don't, and rather just yell "muh freduhm!!!"

I'm not very fond of being demonized

So bite me.
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« Reply #22 on: September 16, 2014, 08:14:46 pm »

Not feeling good about this, and it is Cutler's fault. Ugh. I love third party candidates, but LePage needs to go, desperately.

And whys that?

He's the Rob Ford of Maine.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #23 on: September 16, 2014, 08:39:36 pm »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Yet still among the most accurate?

Perhaps because 2012 was just a good year for the left in general? Not saying they're unrelated, but the correlation, from what I have seen, doesn't occur in non-left favored cycles

Wha? It doesn't usually work like that. PPP actually had the smallest house effect in 2010 as well. Rasmussen did badly in 2010 and by that reasoning they should have done well in a 'right' year.

Don't try to reason with people like him. They don't, and rather just yell "muh freduhm!!!"

I'm not very fond of being demonized

So bite me.

I don't think he wants rabies
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2014, 08:19:47 pm »

Muh Democratic Party

Glad to see Michaud is complacent. Cutler has even lower numbers than before and yet it looks like LePage is turning this around. This will be close either way, and I suspect Michaud wins this anyway, but this is now a Toss-up (Tilt D), not the Lean D I originally thought it would be.

I'll have to disagree. Cutler will probably get more than 11% and that is only bad news for Michaud. Considering muh PPP is generally left leaning, I'm optimistic

Take a look at Cutler's trajectory in wiki. Cutler is trending downward. And yet LePage is continuing to hold on. Even in a two-way match-up, Michaud has been shrinking to only a 4 point lead over LePage (last PPP poll showed Michaud up 7 to LePage head-to-head, the one before that [admittedly nearly a year ago] had Michaud up 14 to LePage). This is a sign of LePage's own improvement in spite of Cutler's constant downward trend.

^ Very true and very sad, from my perspective, although I kind of get it.  As I've said before, Cutler's candidacy forced the Democrats to run someone who would avoid starting in third even if another Democrat might have a higher ceiling and been more likely finish better down the stretch (if said Democrat could actually get consideration, which might not have been likely for anyone other than Michaud, Pingree and Baldacci with Cuter in the race.  I've begun to have daydreams of things I shouldn't wish for that would allow this whole dynamic to change.
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