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Author Topic: NC: PPP confirms that the race is Lean D  (Read 1201 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: September 16, 2014, 11:01:43 am »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/hagan-lead-steady-at-4-points.html

Hagan leads 44-40, same margin as in August.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2014, 11:02:47 am »

More tilt D no???
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2014, 11:38:05 am »

PPP also finds that Obama's approval is 25/61 among undecided voters, and specifically says the race should remain in the Toss-Up category.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2014, 11:38:35 am »

More tilt D no???

Eh, maybe. But Hagan's led in every poll since June, except for the weird YouGov polls and a Rasmussen poll from a few months ago (and Rasmussen is now showing her up by 6%).
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backtored
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2014, 11:57:31 am »

A four-point lead isn't much given the dynamics of the race--sixth year election vulnerable incumbent, pink/purple state, very unpopular Democrat in White House, older and whiter electorate.  I'll buy the notion that CO, NC, and IA all tilt to the Democrat right now.  But I just don't buy the idea that they'll likely stay that way in a year like this.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2014, 12:10:12 pm »

The impending Democratic Wave is building.
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King
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2014, 03:51:47 pm »

Southern races are swinging D and Northeastern ones swinging R
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henster
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2014, 03:53:43 pm »

If she were closer to 50 or above it then it'd be Lean D but she's at 44/46.
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KCDem
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2014, 07:00:18 pm »

A four-point lead isn't much given the dynamics of the race--sixth year election vulnerable incumbent, pink/purple state, very unpopular Democrat in White House, older and whiter electorate.  I'll buy the notion that CO, NC, and IA all tilt to the Democrat right now.  But I just don't buy the idea that they'll likely stay that way in a year like this.

Have you ever learned critical thinking?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2014, 07:02:52 pm »

A four-point lead isn't much given the dynamics of the race--sixth year election vulnerable incumbent, pink/purple state, very unpopular Democrat in White House, older and whiter electorate.  I'll buy the notion that CO, NC, and IA all tilt to the Democrat right now.  But I just don't buy the idea that they'll likely stay that way in a year like this.

Have you ever learned critical thinking?

Have you ever learned objective discussion instead of resorting to personal insults?
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KCDem
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2014, 07:18:52 pm »

A four-point lead isn't much given the dynamics of the race--sixth year election vulnerable incumbent, pink/purple state, very unpopular Democrat in White House, older and whiter electorate.  I'll buy the notion that CO, NC, and IA all tilt to the Democrat right now.  But I just don't buy the idea that they'll likely stay that way in a year like this.

Have you ever learned critical thinking?

Have you ever learned objective discussion instead of resorting to personal insults?


I engage in discussion and I insult those who deserve to be insulted. That's how I roll.
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2014, 11:57:02 pm »

I agree with this guy. Basically, Democrats shouldn't get complacent, Republicans shouldn't despair.

Hagan's emphasis on education is overpowering the drag of Obama, ATM, but that could change.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2014, 11:58:40 pm by Miles »Logged
Ogre Mage
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2014, 12:39:08 am »

Hagan has made courting women voters, especially single women, the backbone of her campaign -- "heels on the ground" was what she called it -- and it shows, with a 49-33 edge among women, similar to what other polls have shown.  


A four-point lead isn't much given the dynamics of the race--sixth year election vulnerable incumbent, pink/purple state, very unpopular Democrat in White House, older and whiter electorate.  I'll buy the notion that CO, NC, and IA all tilt to the Democrat right now.  But I just don't buy the idea that they'll likely stay that way in a year like this.

The Republican Party brand is also deeply unpopular nationally and while that may not matter much in solid Republican states, the swing states are a different story.  There is a reason why the races in Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa are trending in Democrats favor.  Gardner, Tillis and Ernst have records which are an ill fit for running in purple states.  Now that voters are being informed of those records they are not doing so well.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2014, 12:52:06 am by Ogre Mage »Logged
Noted Irishman
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2014, 03:45:51 am »

Hagan has definitely been perceived by me as the safest bet in terms of RSDs - incumbent or not - for most of the year. It seems the trend is now really reflecting that. Of course even a small swing could upset this, but for now, this is her's to lose. She may even be in a better situation currently than someone like Braley ("but muh funduhmentals").
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