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Author Topic: IA: Quinnipac has Ernst +6 and at 50%  (Read 2831 times)
Never
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« on: September 17, 2014, 06:43:51 am »

Article

Ernst: 50%
Braley: 44%
« Last Edit: September 17, 2014, 06:46:55 am by Never »Logged
Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2014, 06:45:36 am »

It's 50-44.

Seems like an outlier,honestly.
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Never
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2014, 06:48:26 am »

It's 50-44.

Seems like an outlier,honestly.

Thanks for pointing that out, I just fixed it.

Now, as for it being an outlier, Quinnipac seemed to explain that part of the shift could be explained by the change in their sample to likely voters from registered ones:

Quote
This survey of likely voters can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2014, 07:04:10 am by Never »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2014, 06:51:06 am »

Spectacular!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2014, 07:06:20 am »

OK ...

Did the NRSC take over the Quinnipiac Polling Institute today or something ?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2014, 07:08:23 am »

Looks like another defeat is on tap for the Dems in their War on Women!
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KCDem
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2014, 07:38:55 am »

The party ID breakdown is:

GOP: 28%
DEM: 26%
IND: 41%
OTHER: 5%

LOL
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2014, 07:49:51 am »

As spectacular as this is, it's probably not true. Ernst will certainly still win, but there's no way she has this big of a lead at this point.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2014, 07:53:21 am »

Will wait for PPP.
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Economically Anxious Bush, Romney, Trump, Bernie Voter
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2014, 08:09:01 am »

Will wait for PPP.
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KCDem
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2014, 08:09:30 am »

As spectacular as this is, it's probably not true. Ernst will certainly still win, but there's no way she has this big of a lead at this point.

That's absurd.
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Snek!
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2014, 08:11:00 am »


This is the same as the Colorado poll, right? Quinnipiac seems like Dick Morris's pollster, where he thought it would be Romney 51-52, Obama 46-47.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2014, 08:13:58 am by MooMooMoo »Logged
Invisible Obama
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2014, 08:12:59 am »

That is far different than anything else we've seen out of Iowa as of late. Considering that Republicans are going after farmers who refused to back Ernst, I find it hard to believe this poll is accurate. That's not a winning move, it reeks of desperation that can actually hurt a campaign and even the GOP is not really banking on this race as a win.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2014, 08:13:22 am »

That poll is about as realistic as the one showing Quinn ahead by double digits. One more reason to follow the polling aggregate.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2014, 08:20:31 am »

This is only a four point difference from PPP's last poll, and Quinnipiac is usually a good pollster. These numbers seem wrong at first glance, but they're probably not terribly far off.

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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2014, 08:20:40 am »

Didn't that PPP poll for some organization have Ernst up 2?

I still don't think Ernst is up by 6, though.
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Never
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2014, 08:32:24 am »

This is only a four point difference from PPP's last poll, and Quinnipiac is usually a good pollster. These numbers seem wrong at first glance, but they're probably not terribly far off.


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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2014, 09:08:36 am »

Saying quinnipiac is as unreliable and hacky as Dick Morris is stupid and ridiculous. That being said, every pollster gets a mulligan for outliers, and this looks like an outlier.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2014, 09:18:24 am »

This will be a close contest. As QU gets closer to election it will balance out with other polls. Ernst and Beaupez have leads that isnt substainable. We will see.
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« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2014, 09:52:24 am »

Two thoughts:

1.) Probably not six points.  I have heard that Braley has a very small MOE lead in internals, but who knows?  Quinnipiac might be using a voter screen that is more GOP-friendly.  I have no problem buying that Ernst has a lead, even if it isnít six points.

2.) Wave.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2014, 09:58:32 am »

There is always potential for a wave, but around Oct 31st, we will see if it is happening.  Ia going GOP is just like AR staying Dem, potentially but not there yet.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2014, 10:23:28 am »

Ouch. Hoping this is an outlier as opposed to a trend.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2014, 10:30:55 am »

Weird poll. Both sides admit that Braley is currently ahead in the state.
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Snek!
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« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2014, 10:46:23 am »

Two thoughts:

1.) Probably not six points.  I have heard that Braley has a very small MOE lead in internals, but who knows?  Quinnipiac might be using a voter screen that is more GOP-friendly.  I have no problem buying that Ernst has a lead, even if it isnít six points.

2.) Wave.


If Quinnipiac releases a CO senate poll, I am expecting similar results. I agree with you that if Republicans are doing very well in Colorado and Iowa, they will probably win about 10 senate seats.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2014, 12:23:06 pm »

So when Q, a good pollster, releases a poll showing Ernst up mid-single, it is suddenly Dick Morris. But when Loras shows the same thing for Braley, it is fine. Gimme a break. I am not saying this is exact, but if this continues, the reds here will really have some reality to start accepting.
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