IA: Quinnipac has Ernst +6 and at 50%

[Person Man]

Will wait for PPP.

This is the same as the Colorado poll, right? Quinnipiac seems like Dick Morris's pollster, where he thought it would be Romney 51-52, Obama 46-47.

[Person Man]

Two thoughts:

1.) Probably not six points.  I have heard that Braley has a very small MOE lead in internals, but who knows?  Quinnipiac might be using a voter screen that is more GOP-friendly.  I have no problem buying that Ernst has a lead, even if it isn’t six points.

2.) Wave.

If Quinnipiac releases a CO senate poll, I am expecting similar results. I agree with you that if Republicans are doing very well in Colorado and Iowa, they will probably win about 10 senate seats.

[Person Man]

Two thoughts:

1.) Probably not six points.  I have heard that Braley has a very small MOE lead in internals, but who knows?  Quinnipiac might be using a voter screen that is more GOP-friendly.  I have no problem buying that Ernst has a lead, even if it isn’t six points.

2.) Wave.

If Quinnipiac releases a CO senate poll, I am expecting similar results. I agree with you that if Republicans are doing very well in Colorado and Iowa, they will probably win about 10 senate seats.

The GOP won't win ten seats.

Iowa has a weak Democratic non-incumbent candidate and Colorado is in the midst of a conservative backlash against an outrageously liberal state legislature.  Those are two local factors that make Iowa and Colorado unique versus other races.

I am not saying that Republicans will win Iowa and Colorado.  But I am saying that if they do, these are two big reasons why that have nothing to do with North Carolina or Louisiana.

I'll buy that as much as 2004-2008 was a backlash against the very conservative establishment in Colorado.