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Author Topic: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8  (Read 3109 times)
Never
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« on: September 18, 2014, 07:02:45 am »

Article

Gardner: 48%
Udall: 40%
Shogan: 8%

Without Independent Steve Shogan, Gardner leads by 10:

Gardner: 52%
Udall: 42%
« Last Edit: September 18, 2014, 07:04:46 am by Never »Logged
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2014, 07:04:46 am »

Definitely waiting for PPP.
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2014, 07:05:16 am »

Definitely waiting for PPP.

With these kinds of numbers, that's definitely a good idea.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2014, 07:06:16 am »

Gardner tied with women? Really?
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2014, 07:06:22 am »

...

Either Udall is ed or Quinnipac is ed in the head. I lean towards the later...
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2014, 07:09:15 am »

Lean towards "massive outliers" in both CO and IA.

SUSA, which has been pretty good in CO in 2008 and 2012 showed completely different numbers.
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2014, 07:10:41 am »

Gardner tied with women? Really?

At least that's fairly consistent with their poll of the governor's race showing Beauprez up a point with women, though in reality, Gardner tying with women does seem dubious.
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2014, 07:18:22 am »

Does anyone think that Independent candidate Steve Shogan is actually as strong as this poll is indicating? I just have trouble believing that he is garnering 8% of the vote, considering Suffolk only had him at 1%, and SurveyUSA had him at 3%.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2014, 07:28:01 am »

From now on, I'm just gonna refer to Quinnipiac as QuinoaPAC. Tongue
That's how stupid these last two polls (in Colorado) have been lol. Cheesy
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2014, 07:28:21 am »

Never: No. Lynn Bartels said he's a Some Dude ex-Dem.
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2014, 08:06:14 am »

Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2014, 08:23:41 am »

Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.

True, Quinnipiac overestimated Romney by way too much (about 6 points or so) in 2012. Still, Quinnipac polls would have to be even more biased towards Republicans this year in Colorado than they were last time in order to completely erase Gardner's lead. If we subtracted 6.4 from Gardner's margin of 8, he still maintains a bare lead of 1.6%. That's not to say that it is impossible for Quinnipiac to have made a glaring error with this polling, but we'll probably need to see some more polls of this race to confirm how inaccurate these numbers are.
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2014, 08:33:19 am »

Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.

True, Quinnipiac overestimated Romney by way too much (about 6 points or so) in 2012. Still, Quinnipac polls would have to be even more biased towards Republicans this year in Colorado than they were last time in order to completely erase Gardner's lead. If we subtracted 6.4 from Gardner's margin of 8, he still maintains a bare lead of 1.6%. That's not to say that it is impossible for Quinnipiac to have made a glaring error with this polling, but we'll probably need to see some more polls of this race to confirm how inaccurate these numbers are.

I'll go with that.
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« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2014, 08:40:08 am »

What the f-u-c-k is wrong with polls this cycle? They'r all over the place!
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2014, 08:42:51 am »

Sabato says Quinnipiac had a OH poll out at this time in 2010 with Kasich +17; he said to treat this poll like that one.
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2014, 08:52:39 am »

Why are you all acting surprised? We all knew this was coming in a poll with a sample that had  Beauprez up 10.
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2014, 08:55:56 am »

Yes, with the gubernatorial poll being so inflated, this was to be expected. I can't really see these numbers being accurate at all, these are way too inflated from what we've seen from other polling outfits.
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2014, 09:16:06 am »

Sabato says Quinnipiac had a OH poll out at this time in 2010 with Kasich +17; he said to treat this poll like that one.

Quinnipiac occasionally throws out crap numbers. Otherwise they're a good pollster. This is one of the crap ones.
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2014, 09:40:32 am »

Sabato says Quinnipiac had a OH poll out at this time in 2010 with Kasich +17; he said to treat this poll like that one.

Quinnipiac occasionally throws out crap numbers. Otherwise they're a good pollster. This is one of the crap ones.

Yeah. He won by 2, right?
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2014, 09:48:48 am »

So an NBC News poll showing Udall with a comfy lead is totally plausible but a Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a similar lead is not?  Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, Democrats here and elsewhere have pointed to Udall's consistent lead in the polls as evidence of the supposed "lean D" status of the race.  In two days you have as many polls showing Gardner winning, one of which is well outside the margin.  Is he up eight?  Probably not. But he may very well be leading at this point, which is means that this race is far from Lean D.
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2014, 09:49:54 am »

I'll just throw out "R+7."
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« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2014, 09:53:40 am »

I'll just throw out "R+7."

Which is what 2010 looked like.  A reach?  Yeah, probably.  But certainly not crazy.  It is a rabbit chase trying to reconfigure voter screens and rectangle polling like that.  It is better to take it for what it is and throw it in with the rest of the polling data.  If you do that, you get a race that is probably very, very close.  I just happen to think that it will break strongly for Gardner.
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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2014, 09:58:14 am »

It's fine if you want to like a poll that produces a result that you find favorable to your own personal view, but you can't expect everyone else to nod in agreement. With an R+7 electorate in 2010, Buck still lost, so this poll could still be off even if you go by that standard. +8 is way too inflated.
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2014, 10:05:09 am »

So an NBC News poll showing Udall with a comfy lead is totally plausible but a Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a similar lead is not?  Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, Democrats here and elsewhere have pointed to Udall's consistent lead in the polls as evidence of the supposed "lean D" status of the race.  In two days you have as many polls showing Gardner winning, one of which is well outside the margin.  Is he up eight?  Probably not. But he may very well be leading at this point, which is means that this race is far from Lean D.

The +6 might have been a stretch, but it was at least in the ballpark of other polls (the two before and after it was +4, +2, +3, +4).  This poll is 7 points off from anything else out recently, 6 points off from anything out the entire cycle.
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« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2014, 10:09:05 am »

If anyone loses it is Hickenlooper, the Udalls are a team and they are much more li
better campaigners, too.

There will be some ticket splitting maybe AR and Ga and even CO.
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